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Has the Quincy Institute not found a way to criticize the United States without painting authoritarian states as completely blameless?
All right,
on the China/Taiwan section.
https://quincyinst.org/2020/12/03/a-new-direction-a-foreign-policy-playbook-on-military-restraint-for-the-biden-team/
1/
All right,
on the China/Taiwan section. https://quincyinst.org/2020/12/03/a-new-direction-a-foreign-policy-playbook-on-military-restraint-for-the-biden-team/
1/
"The Biden administration should...explicitly reaffirm America’s commitment to its longstanding One China policy..."
We have. This admin has. The actions of the Trump admin may have pushed the outermost bounds of our "One China" policy, but have not moved past them. 2/
We have. This admin has. The actions of the Trump admin may have pushed the outermost bounds of our "One China" policy, but have not moved past them. 2/
"...and an uncoerced, mutually acceptable resolution of the issue, eventually through cross–Strait negotiations."
This just isn't on the table. See earlier thread, including on demographic/ identity trends:
https://twitter.com/jessicadrun/status/1316408523065044992?s=20
3/
This just isn't on the table. See earlier thread, including on demographic/ identity trends:
https://twitter.com/jessicadrun/status/1316408523065044992?s=20
3/
China 
was the one that terminated official and semi-official cross-Strait contacts despite affirmations from Tsai of a commitment to the status quo.
4/
was the one that terminated official and semi-official cross-Strait contacts despite affirmations from Tsai of a commitment to the status quo.4/
Further, the myth of an actual consensus under the "1992 Consensus" no longer holds water in either Taiwan or China. China will only meet/negotiate with the KMT and there may no longer be a common baseline--or sufficient political will--there.
5/
5/
Taipei, under both parties, have extended overtures to Beijing for discussions on de-escalating tensions that have been largely dismissed. What next, then?
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6/
A bit outside my scope, but "balanced reassurance and deterrence" and calls for continued support for a porcupine strategy while reducing U.S. military support, in very vague terms, seems to suggest an un-realistic time horizon.
7/
7/
Further, Taiwan has put forth an Overall Defense Concept with emphasis on asymmetric capabilities--but not solely on asymmetric--and still requires conventional assets. This includes during peacetime, as we're seeing in the scrambles.
8/
8/
The following section is on maritime, so I'm going to pass the baton to @zacharyhaver.
Here we go, looping this into the thread: https://twitter.com/zacharyhaver/status/1334973989203140609?s=20
