1/21. Dec 13 to Dec 19 -
Our #COVID19 daily epidemic 7-day-forecasting for 209 countries and territories.
Dashboard: https://renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epidemic-Forecasting/_w_5f9d45a0/_w_8da5e02a/?tab=world_map
Data: https://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide & https://coronavirus.jhu.edu 
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/21. Ireland, which is currently the safest country in Europe, has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone and is foreseen to remain in it or just above it (R-eff=0.98), with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown from Oct 21, for 6 weeks.
2/21. Ireland, which is currently the safest country in Europe, has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone and is foreseen to remain in it or just above it (R-eff=0.98), with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.Lockdown from Oct 21, for 6 weeks.
2/21. Ireland, which is currently the safest country in Europe, has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone and is foreseen to remain in it or just above it (R-eff=0.98), with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.Lockdown from Oct 21, for 6 weeks.
3/21. Italy is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.82), decreasing from high to medium (at mid-wk) level of activity, with decreasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown in Lombardy, Piedmont/Valle d’Aosta, Calabria from Nov 05 for 2 wks.
3/21. Italy is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.82), decreasing from high to medium (at mid-wk) level of activity, with decreasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.Lockdown in Lombardy, Piedmont/Valle d’Aosta, Calabria from Nov 05 for 2 wks.
3/21. Italy is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.82), decreasing from high to medium (at mid-wk) level of activity, with decreasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.Lockdown in Lombardy, Piedmont/Valle d’Aosta, Calabria from Nov 05 for 2 wks.
4/21 - Belgium has stopped its descent before having landed in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.99), at medium level of activity, with still very high levels of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.
4/21 - Belgium has stopped its descent before having landed in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.99), at medium level of activity, with still very high levels of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.
4/21 - Belgium has stopped its descent before having landed in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.99), at medium level of activity, with still very high levels of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.
5/21. The UK seems losing control of its #COVID19 second wave, foreseen at high levels (R-eff=1.05), with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more d.
mRNA vaccine approved: the UK has started its vaccination campaign.
5/21. The UK seems losing control of its #COVID19 second wave, foreseen at high levels (R-eff=1.05), with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more d.mRNA vaccine approved: the UK has started its vaccination campaign.
5/21. The UK seems losing control of its #COVID19 second wave, foreseen at high levels (R-eff=1.05), with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more d.mRNA vaccine approved: the UK has started its vaccination campaign.
6/21. France seems losing control of its #COVID19 second wave, at high levels (R-eff=1.08), foreseen to increase above 13,000 new cases/day after mid-Dec. Slow decrease in mortality, but still at very high levels, for 7 more days.
6/21. France seems losing control of its #COVID19 second wave, at high levels (R-eff=1.08), foreseen to increase above 13,000 new cases/day after mid-Dec. Slow decrease in mortality, but still at very high levels, for 7 more days.
6/21. France seems losing control of its #COVID19 second wave, at high levels (R-eff=1.08), foreseen to increase above 13,000 new cases/day after mid-Dec. Slow decrease in mortality, but still at very high levels, for 7 more days.
7/21 - Switzerland seems losing control of its #COVID19 second wave, at high levels (R-eff=1.06), rising again at high levels of activity.
More details in:
https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1337429512565493761?s=20
Very decreasing very high levels of mortality.
7/21 - Switzerland seems losing control of its #COVID19 second wave, at high levels (R-eff=1.06), rising again at high levels of activity.More details in: https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1337429512565493761?s=20Very decreasing very high levels of mortality.
7/21 - Switzerland seems losing control of its #COVID19 second wave, at high levels (R-eff=1.06), rising again at high levels of activity.More details in: https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1337429512565493761?s=20Very decreasing very high levels of mortality.
8/21. Germany does not control its #COVID19 second wave (R-eff=1.08), increasing at high levels of activity, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
8/21. Germany does not control its #COVID19 second wave (R-eff=1.08), increasing at high levels of activity, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
8/21. Germany does not control its #COVID19 second wave (R-eff=1.08), increasing at high levels of activity, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
9/21. The Netherlands has lost control of its #COVID19 second wave, rising at high levels of epidemic activity (R-eff=1.11), with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
9/21. The Netherlands has lost control of its #COVID19 second wave, rising at high levels of epidemic activity (R-eff=1.11), with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
9/21. The Netherlands has lost control of its #COVID19 second wave, rising at high levels of epidemic activity (R-eff=1.11), with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
10/21. Finland will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, losing its control (R-eff=1.12), at medium levels, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
10/21. Finland will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, losing its control (R-eff=1.12), at medium levels, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
10/21. Finland will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, losing its control (R-eff=1.12), at medium levels, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
11/21. Libya is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), at medium level of activity, with low levels of reported mortality, for 7 more days
11/21. Libya is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), at medium level of activity, with low levels of reported mortality, for 7 more days
11/21. Libya is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), at medium level of activity, with low levels of reported mortality, for 7 more days
12/21. South Africa, which enters in its summer season, will experience a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.28), at medium levels, with increasing high levels of mortality, for the 7 upcoming days.
12/21. South Africa, which enters in its summer season, will experience a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.28), at medium levels, with increasing high levels of mortality, for the 7 upcoming days.
12/21. South Africa, which enters in its summer season, will experience a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.28), at medium levels, with increasing high levels of mortality, for the 7 upcoming days.
13/21. Israel will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.18), at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
13/21. Israel will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.18), at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
13/21. Israel will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.18), at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
14/21. Russia will continue to see its incidence of #COVID19 new cases rising at low pace (R-eff=1.03), increasing from medium to high (by mid-week) levels of activity, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Russia begins vaccination campaign with Spoutnik V in Moscow.
14/21. Russia will continue to see its incidence of #COVID19 new cases rising at low pace (R-eff=1.03), increasing from medium to high (by mid-week) levels of activity, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.Russia begins vaccination campaign with Spoutnik V in Moscow.
14/21. Russia will continue to see its incidence of #COVID19 new cases rising at low pace (R-eff=1.03), increasing from medium to high (by mid-week) levels of activity, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.Russia begins vaccination campaign with Spoutnik V in Moscow.
15/21. Japan will remain within its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=1.03), with very low levels of mortality foreseen for 7 more days.
Insights on https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1328471487003680770?s=20
Including details of its backward tracing strategy
15/21. Japan will remain within its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=1.03), with very low levels of mortality foreseen for 7 more days.Insights on https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1328471487003680770?s=20Including details of its backward tracing strategy
15/21. Japan will remain within its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=1.03), with very low levels of mortality foreseen for 7 more days.Insights on https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1328471487003680770?s=20Including details of its backward tracing strategy
16/21. South Korea is facing seasonal pressure from the virus (R-eff=1.17), but is still foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (with<840 cases/day), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
16/21. South Korea is facing seasonal pressure from the virus (R-eff=1.17), but is still foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (with<840 cases/day), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
16/21. South Korea is facing seasonal pressure from the virus (R-eff=1.17), but is still foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (with<840 cases/day), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
17/21. Canada does not succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.04), at medium levels, with high level of mortality, for 7 more days.
https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1335174661567557633?s=20
Forecast for 4 provinces available in the thread.
(mRNA vaccine approved).
17/21. Canada does not succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.04), at medium levels, with high level of mortality, for 7 more days. https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1335174661567557633?s=20Forecast for 4 provinces available in the thread.(mRNA vaccine approved).
17/21. Canada does not succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.04), at medium levels, with high level of mortality, for 7 more days. https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1335174661567557633?s=20Forecast for 4 provinces available in the thread.(mRNA vaccine approved).
18/21. The USA does not succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, rising at high levels (R-eff=1.05), with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1335920000369106945?s=20
Forecast for 7 states in the embedded thread (mRNA vaccine approved)
18/21. The USA does not succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, rising at high levels (R-eff=1.05), with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1335920000369106945?s=20Forecast for 7 states in the embedded thread (mRNA vaccine approved)
18/21. The USA does not succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, rising at high levels (R-eff=1.05), with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1335920000369106945?s=20Forecast for 7 states in the embedded thread (mRNA vaccine approved)
19/21. Brazil which enters in its summer season does not succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, rising at high levels (R-eff=1.05), with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
19/21. Brazil which enters in its summer season does not succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, rising at high levels (R-eff=1.05), with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
19/21. Brazil which enters in its summer season does not succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, rising at high levels (R-eff=1.05), with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
20/21. Uruguay, which had performed so well up to November, is experiencing, in spite of the upcoming summer season, a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.24), at medium levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
20/21. Uruguay, which had performed so well up to November, is experiencing, in spite of the upcoming summer season, a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.24), at medium levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
20/21. Uruguay, which had performed so well up to November, is experiencing, in spite of the upcoming summer season, a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.24), at medium levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
21/21. Australia and New Zealand are among the safest countries in the world with regard with #COVID19 epidemic activity. They both remain for the past months within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, and will remain so, at least for 7 more days.
21/21. Australia and New Zealand are among the safest countries in the world with regard with #COVID19 epidemic activity. They both remain for the past months within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, and will remain so, at least for 7 more days.
21/21. Australia and New Zealand are among the safest countries in the world with regard with #COVID19 epidemic activity. They both remain for the past months within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, and will remain so, at least for 7 more days.
22/21.
Read forecasting for other countries by following @KristenN_06 and @elisa_manetti
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100
23/21 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortaltiy > 3.0
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