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A quick update 
on COVID-19 in FL
Rough week - I don't recommend moving...ever
Well BRIEFLY tackle:
1. cases
2. testing
3. positivity
4. hospitalizations
5. deaths
1/
on COVID-19 in FLRough week - I don't recommend moving...ever
Well BRIEFLY tackle:
1. cases
2. testing
3. positivity
4. hospitalizations
5. deaths
1/
1. CASES
Let's start with all age groups combined.
At 9685 daily cases in the past 7 days, we are 5% higher than 1 week ago (9229) and 27% higher than just 2 weeks ago (7630).
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Let's start with all age groups combined.
At 9685 daily cases in the past 7 days, we are 5% higher than 1 week ago (9229) and 27% higher than just 2 weeks ago (7630).
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1. CASES (cont'd)
Now the 4 pediatric age groups.
For all of them, we are seeing the highest daily case counts ever, exceeding the "summer surge".
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Now the 4 pediatric age groups.
For all of them, we are seeing the highest daily case counts ever, exceeding the "summer surge".
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1. CASES (cont'd)
Adults aged 18-79.
For most of these age groups, seeing
but not yet at counts during summer surge.
Concerningly, for those 65-79, we are pretty much where we were at the peak of the summer surge (in terms of cases, not all outcomes).
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Adults aged 18-79.
For most of these age groups, seeing
but not yet at counts during summer surge.Concerningly, for those 65-79, we are pretty much where we were at the peak of the summer surge (in terms of cases, not all outcomes).
4/
1. CASES (cont'd)
In our most vulnerable age group (80+ years), we are unfortunately continuing to see increases and are pretty much where we were at the beginning of Aug (not a place we want to go back to).
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In our most vulnerable age group (80+ years), we are unfortunately continuing to see increases and are pretty much where we were at the beginning of Aug (not a place we want to go back to).
5/
1. CASES (cont'd)
This heatmap is a summary of the epidemic curves, focusing on changes.
During summer surge, we saw rapid, pronounced increases, doubling or more every two weeks.
Now, seeing slower increases, but increases sustained for quite a while now.
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This heatmap is a summary of the epidemic curves, focusing on changes.
During summer surge, we saw rapid, pronounced increases, doubling or more every two weeks.
Now, seeing slower increases, but increases sustained for quite a while now.
6/
1. CASES (cont'd)
Let's now focus on cases per 100,000 population (rates), so we can compare counties.
On left is are rates during the most recent 7 days.
On right are those rates over the entire pandemic timeframe.
Too much to get into - just informational now.
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Let's now focus on cases per 100,000 population (rates), so we can compare counties.
On left is are rates during the most recent 7 days.
On right are those rates over the entire pandemic timeframe.
Too much to get into - just informational now.
7/
2. TESTING
We are doing more testing than ever before, over 134,000 daily in the past 7 days, and nearly 50,000 new people tested for the first time ever (daily in the past 7 days).
Big county variation in testing per capita - top 15 counties are listed on the right.
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We are doing more testing than ever before, over 134,000 daily in the past 7 days, and nearly 50,000 new people tested for the first time ever (daily in the past 7 days).
Big county variation in testing per capita - top 15 counties are listed on the right.
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2. TESTING (cont'd)
Antigen testing likely to be contributing to increased testing.
Although we don't get testing type for positives and negatives, we do get them for cases.
About 3 in 10 cases now classified as antigen-tested (vs. PCR). This is a good thing!
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Antigen testing likely to be contributing to increased testing.
Although we don't get testing type for positives and negatives, we do get them for cases.
About 3 in 10 cases now classified as antigen-tested (vs. PCR). This is a good thing!
9/
3. POSITIVITY
1. Among all persons tested: at 10% pretty much at positivity levels of late August
2. Among all those who've never tested +: at 8% at positivity levels of mid August
3. Among people tested for 1st time: 1 in 5 testing +, about the highest we've ever been.
10/
1. Among all persons tested: at 10% pretty much at positivity levels of late August
2. Among all those who've never tested +: at 8% at positivity levels of mid August
3. Among people tested for 1st time: 1 in 5 testing +, about the highest we've ever been.
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3. POSITIVITY (cont'd)
If you are confused at the three measures of positivity, below is a guide based on the different types of people tested daily (new testers / retesters, and based on test result).
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If you are confused at the three measures of positivity, below is a guide based on the different types of people tested daily (new testers / retesters, and based on test result).
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3. POSITIVITY (cont'd)
Although we don't get positivity by age group, we do receive a pediatric report that includes positivity.
For over 1 month, noticeable increase in positivity in the pediatric population. Now at about 16%.
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Although we don't get positivity by age group, we do receive a pediatric report that includes positivity.
For over 1 month, noticeable increase in positivity in the pediatric population. Now at about 16%.
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3. POSITIVITY (cont'd)
For the past week, the increase in cases is more pronounced than the increase in testing.
For the week before, testing was outpacing cases.
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For the past week, the increase in cases is more pronounced than the increase in testing.
For the week before, testing was outpacing cases.
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4. HOSPS
This is one of the most meaningful indicators. 7-day average hospitalizations with a primary dx of COVID-19 is where we were at end of August.
Saw a dip today, not uncommon for weekend.
This is one to continue watching.
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This is one of the most meaningful indicators. 7-day average hospitalizations with a primary dx of COVID-19 is where we were at end of August.
Saw a dip today, not uncommon for weekend.
This is one to continue watching.
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4. HOSPS (cont'd)
Below are county trends in hosps for the past 2 weeks.
Only include counties w/ at least 500,000 population size.
Red = increase during period; Green = decrease
Miami-Dade seeing the most pronounced increases.
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Below are county trends in hosps for the past 2 weeks.
Only include counties w/ at least 500,000 population size.
Red = increase during period; Green = decrease
Miami-Dade seeing the most pronounced increases.
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5. DEATHS
Top is the more accurate death curve (by date of death), but the most recent 4 weeks are gross underestimates. Deaths been pretty flat.
Deaths based on date reported (not my fav) is suggesting increased numbers being reported, but hard to assess these data.
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Top is the more accurate death curve (by date of death), but the most recent 4 weeks are gross underestimates. Deaths been pretty flat.
Deaths based on date reported (not my fav) is suggesting increased numbers being reported, but hard to assess these data.
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5. DEATHS (cont'd)
The lag from date of death to date reported continues to be a bit of a black box.
The lag will disappear or be minimal and then will have a significant portion of deaths reported that occurred over 60d prior.
Want to understand this process better.
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The lag from date of death to date reported continues to be a bit of a black box.
The lag will disappear or be minimal and then will have a significant portion of deaths reported that occurred over 60d prior.
Want to understand this process better.
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5. DEATHS (cont'd)
An illustration of the last 6 days.
Date reported on left column.
Bars graphs show when deaths actually occurred.
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An illustration of the last 6 days.
Date reported on left column.
Bars graphs show when deaths actually occurred.
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That's it! Probably tweeting less often while we continue to move and into the holidays...just too much strain on the family in the past 6 months. We are going to focus on us for a while.
Then we'll see what 2021 has in store!
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Then we'll see what 2021 has in store!
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