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Let's step back and take stock of what Trump and his supporters and enablers (collectively, "Trumpists") are doing to the GOP and the country right now. (ATTN @davidfrum, @DavidAFrench, @Peter_Wehner, @benjaminwittes, @YAppelbaum.)
First, they are consolidating anti-democratic forces' control of the Republican Party. By winning the support of many of the party's federal office-holders and the silence of almost all the rest, they prove that they are in the driver's seat.
Second, Trump is consolidating his own role as party kingmaker in the Biden era. In 2022, a negative tweet from him will sink GOP primary candidates in many or most districts. Republicans must kiss his ring. Trump's talk of a 2024 bid will stifle emergence of other leaders.
Third, Trumpists are running a massive and successful "firehose of falsehood" disinformation campaign against the US public to undermine Biden's legitimacy. This is a page from Russia's info-warfare playbook, and it works, so we should expect to see it again and again.
Fourth, they are harassing, ostracizing, and intimidating Republican vote counters and state/local officials who showed integrity. That will help Trumpists bully vote-counters in the future. GOP officials will think twice before crossing the mob.
All of that, and ironically...Trumpists are not really even Republicans. Their loyalty is to Trump, not the party or any coherent/conservative agenda. They are to GOP as Hamas was to Palestinians...spoilers who can block but not build.
In short, Trump et al will not retain the presidency, but they are putting themselves in position to make life hell for President Biden, the Republican Party, and US democracy. Which is what they want.
What changes the equation? Only a change of heart in the GOP base...and integrity+leadership from Republican leaders who have seen "Thelma and Louise." I'm not holding my breath.
