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So now we know London will join millions of others in T3
Awkward questions
1) How much difference do we really expect this to make in seven days from Wednesday when they're effectively suspended for socialising/social mixing for Christmas? https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1338496416654692352
Awkward questions
1) How much difference do we really expect this to make in seven days from Wednesday when they're effectively suspended for socialising/social mixing for Christmas? https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1338496416654692352
2) What evidence is there that T3 will make much difference in closing restaurants/pubs alone but keeping shops open, gyms open, schools open this week before that mixing takes place?
3) And wasn't T2 supposed to stop the growth of the disease? Why hasn't it done so in London?
3) And wasn't T2 supposed to stop the growth of the disease? Why hasn't it done so in London?
4) This is London's case graph. There was some impact during national lockdown but not that much. Case numbers returned to more or less where they were when London went into lockdown. Many said T2 wouldn't be enough. Why wasn't action taken earlier?
This is recent policy in London. It perhaps isn't surprising there isn't control of the virus with such volatility.
late Nov: lockdown (hospitality closed)
early-mid December: T2 (H open)
mid-late December: T3 (H closed)
Xmas: Tiers in terms of socialising effectively suspended.
late Nov: lockdown (hospitality closed)
early-mid December: T2 (H open)
mid-late December: T3 (H closed)
Xmas: Tiers in terms of socialising effectively suspended.
5) infection rates coming down in some places in T3 like Newcastle, having some impact say, in Birmingham, but not in say Kent, where rates are continuing to climb (see graph below). How can we account for the differences?
6) T3 is now focussed on social mixing and hospitality. But we're basically waiving all requirements on social mixing for Xmas. And hospitality appears to account for a pretty minor % of major incidents of overall respiratory infection. Ergo is it going to make much difference?
7) Hancock is giving a fair few hints in the House that areas might come down from T3 on Wednesday. If so, how wise is it to have hundreds of thousands of Londoners moving over Xmas to these areas and reseeding infection just as they've emerged?
I guarantee come the 23rd December, this site and news bulletins will be full of pictures of full London trains going north.
Remember, London's cases began rising in late November. Before hospitality reopened. Before the city emerged from lockdown.
In essence, all this is one question: is the marginal benefit of introducing T3 for 7 days, a T3 largely focussed on hospitality, simply going to be dwarfed by the inevitable disbenefits which will flow from the biggest social and geographic relaxation we've seen since Lockdown1?
NB these are not questions I’m only now asking because London is going into T3- as anyone who has followed my work on NN knows, I’ve been reporting on the tiers system from all over the country and asking these same things.
8) sorry forgot this one. We know the most affected age group are secondary school children. Closing pubs in London is unlikely to have much effect on them. But many will be going to see Nan and Grandad next week. Is that not one of the biggest worry right now? https://twitter.com/ons/status/1337367403706130432
Matt Hancock just said that how severe Xmas mixing effects might be “all depends on how we behave”
But government has said mixing is permissible, which is the crucial fact. It’s surely unrealistic to imagine people are going to be “careful” round the Xmas table.
But government has said mixing is permissible, which is the crucial fact. It’s surely unrealistic to imagine people are going to be “careful” round the Xmas table.
And 9) why is test, track and isolate still not working in preventing areas’ outbreaks from getting out of control? Can it be made to work?
All of this is feeling like the same questions we had with the first set of tiers except we’ve now got Christmas coming up.
All of this is feeling like the same questions we had with the first set of tiers except we’ve now got Christmas coming up.
At briefing, Hancock doesn't engage much when asked about some of the risks inherent with Christmas mixing- mainly says that the public should be cautious beforehand.
Mantra from ministers and officials is that tier rules aren't being relaxed, just mixing between households. But the point is that household transmission is a big problem and we are going to be relaxing travel restrictions between all tiers. Not sure it holds water.
Whitty says "there's no perfect time to introduce tiers"
But previously he told us he thought Tier 2 was strong enough to keep the disease under control. But it hasn't been the case in London. What went wrong? Why was he wrong? How can we be assured it will work elsewhere?
But previously he told us he thought Tier 2 was strong enough to keep the disease under control. But it hasn't been the case in London. What went wrong? Why was he wrong? How can we be assured it will work elsewhere?
Previously briefings indicated that the tiers should control or reduce the disease in and of themselves. Today Whitty and others are saying that they're a tool to "escalate/escalate down" until vaccines arrive. Which is it?
