Read on Twitter
Mutations to the Covid-19 virus in the UK are worrying, but not surprising. There are thousands of known mutations to the virus, it was only a matter of time before one changed the rate of infection. https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/1340747219373318146
This is why we need to vaccinate the world. Each transmission by infection opens the threat of mutation.
In the worst case scenario, a mutation renders existing vaccines ineffective.
In the worst case scenario, a mutation renders existing vaccines ineffective.
Good news: Should that happen, we can develop a new messenger RNA vaccine faster now than in 2020.
Here’s how:
Here’s how:
From the 10 months it took to develop the messenger RNA vaccines in 2020, today we can halve that to five months.
In 2020 we needed:
3 months development before testing.
3 months phase 1&2 safety testing in humans.
3 months phase 3 efficacy testing.
In 2020 we needed:
3 months development before testing.
3 months phase 1&2 safety testing in humans.
3 months phase 3 efficacy testing.
Plus 1 month for regulatory approval.
We halve this time because we need less time to develop the vaccine, and can do trials in parallel.
We halve this time because we need less time to develop the vaccine, and can do trials in parallel.
First, the development phase can be accelerated:
The key sequence of the mutation can be plugged into the existing platform, allowing us to quickly put a new set of RNA instructions in place.
The key sequence of the mutation can be plugged into the existing platform, allowing us to quickly put a new set of RNA instructions in place.
Also, one of the most difficult parts of messenger RNA vaccine development is delivering the RNA into cells, where it does its job.
We do this by wrapping the RNA in oily lipid nanoparticles (LNPs): https://twitter.com/andreyzarur/status/1337013945211695104
We do this by wrapping the RNA in oily lipid nanoparticles (LNPs): https://twitter.com/andreyzarur/status/1337013945211695104
The LNPs help the messenger RNA get safely through the body and into the right bit of cells to do its job. But it’s complicated to create the right LNP - so that takes time.
The good news is that the LNP, and many other parts of the process, can be used again with a slightly different bit of messenger RNA.
This means that the 3 month development process may be cut to less than a month.
This means that the 3 month development process may be cut to less than a month.
Second, accelerated speed of trials:
Everything in the vaccine, except the messenger RNA itself, would be the same as this year’s vaccines. That means that the vaccine is very likely to be safe.
Everything in the vaccine, except the messenger RNA itself, would be the same as this year’s vaccines. That means that the vaccine is very likely to be safe.
This may mean that phases 1, 2 and 3 can be run in parallel - testing safety efficacy at the same time.
This could take another 3 months off the trials.
This could take another 3 months off the trials.
All this halves the timeline from 10 months to just 5 months.
It’s not certain that we can hit this deadline, but we’ll have a good shot at it.
It’s not certain that we can hit this deadline, but we’ll have a good shot at it.
Rather than building out variants of RNA vaccines, however, we would be better off vaccinating the whole world before there’s a serious mutation.
That means scaling up production and making sure the whole world is covered: https://fortune.com/2020/11/12/pfizer-biontech-covid-vaccine-herd-immunity/
That means scaling up production and making sure the whole world is covered: https://fortune.com/2020/11/12/pfizer-biontech-covid-vaccine-herd-immunity/
But if we don’t succeed at that, then we are confident that we can produce another vaccine quickly.
We will beat this virus.
We will beat this virus.
PS For more on the practicalities of scaling up, I wrote more here: https://twitter.com/andreyzarur/status/1337013944096067584
