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There is something rather inexorable about the relation between COVID-19 cases and deaths in the second wave. Here's a thread of the good and the (potentially very
) bad news. /1
) bad news. /1
Basically, deaths follow cases remarkably closely, with between two and four weeks distance. The statistical modelling here is hard (don't use linear regression!), but a simply two-line plot is probably sufficient. /2
On the optimistic side, we have Belgium. /3
Italy has a long way to go, but they seem to have broken the back of the problem, if they can keep cases down. /4
Spain has made great progress, but the last few days are a bit concerning. /5
Ditto for France. /6
Switzerland has stabilized, but at a worryingly high level. /7
Czechia is at a critical point. /8
It looks like the Netherlands may be starting to throw away the progress they made. (Their deaths-to-cases ratio is quite a bit lower than their neighbours'; I'm not sure why.) /9
Things are starting to look bad for the UK, which never got on top of its cases in November. /10
And Germany looks horrible.
/11
/11
Finally, the USA: The Thanksgiving effect may be just about plateauing out, but there is still the Christmas period to come. This is just awful. /12
All data from Johns Hopkins. I can make these charts very quickly if you would like to see how your country is doing in the second wave (or any other time period). /13 /end
cc @GidMK @jburnmurdoch
cc @GidMK @jburnmurdoch
PS: All data are 14-day moving averages.
