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THREAD: COVID-19 Testing in NSW
Before I start I want to say that I fully support and admire all the amazing health workers, pathologists, lab assistants, couriers, police, health professionals and everyone else who have been working so hard to protect the NSW Community.
Before I start I want to say that I fully support and admire all the amazing health workers, pathologists, lab assistants, couriers, police, health professionals and everyone else who have been working so hard to protect the NSW Community.
5 days ago I noticed there was a lot of confusion about the way covid-19 testing numbers were being reported on so I decided to look into this, to try and make sense of it for myself. The first question I had was what method were @NSWHealth using to report these numbers.
@NSWHealth finally responded to @JoshButler who asked them to clarify their reporting method for covid-19 testing and they replied with the following message.
https://twitter.com/JoshButler/status/1341988075501543424
However Josh and others still seemed confused about testing v processing by the pathology labs.
https://twitter.com/JoshButler/status/1341988075501543424
However Josh and others still seemed confused about testing v processing by the pathology labs.
So @nswhealth have been reporting on the number of daily processed tests by pathology labs in a 24hr period from 8pm to 8pm, not the number of tests taken on any given day. https://twitter.com/dolphinslikesu1/status/1343749992704397313
However most of the media reporting since the Avalon cluster began has been so confusing, that most people have had no idea what actual testing numbers are being reported each day. https://twitter.com/dolphinslikesu1/status/1343749992704397313
At his media conference on Dec 22 Prof Paul Kelly announced there were 44,000 covid-19 tests conducted in NSW the day before on Dec 21. https://www.health.gov.au/news/chief-medical-officer-prof-paul-kellys-press-conference-about-covid-19-on-22-december-2020
Yet most media outlets reported it like this.
A record 44,000 Sydneysiders flocked to get tested on Tuesday as the state works frantically to stamp out the Northern Beaches outbreak ahead of Christmas Day. https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/nsw-covid-testing-queues-lead-to-fines-and-demerit-points-for-motorists-using-their-mobile-phones-c-1816181
A record 44,000 Sydneysiders flocked to get tested on Tuesday as the state works frantically to stamp out the Northern Beaches outbreak ahead of Christmas Day. https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/nsw-covid-testing-queues-lead-to-fines-and-demerit-points-for-motorists-using-their-mobile-phones-c-1816181
The problem with this reporting is it's just not accurate. Those 44,000 tests results that were processed by 8pm on Dec 21 were most likely for PCR tests that were taken anytime from a few hours to 3 days beforehand.
This then raises the question of pathology testing capacity in NSW, and just how many covid-19 PCR tests can the Public + Private Pathology labs process on any given day. We were directed to statements about 'surge capacity' and 'many more than that', but no actual figures.
So we kept digging a little deeper and directly contacted @NSWHealth @NSWHPathology to get an answer. We also asked them if they could provide a breakdown of daily covid PCR test processing by Public + Private pathology labs and what the capacity was for each lab.
Unfortunately we have not received an answer to these questions in over 4 days of asking them, so the true NSW pathology processing capacity remains unknown. We do know the record so far is 69,800 tests which were processed on Dec 24. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-25/nsw-coronavirus-seven-new-cases-record-testing-numbers/13014344
We then decided to cross-check the reported testing numbers against the NSW Open Data sets which are updated daily on weekdays.
https://data.nsw.gov.au/nsw-covid-19-data/tests
https://data.nsw.gov.au/nsw-covid-19-data/tests
However it turns out the numbers don't match because NSW data report testing numbers by the actual date the test was taken, not the date tests were processed. https://twitter.com/hardenuppete/status/1343768063242452994
However just for the record these are the numbers we came up with based on the reported daily testing numbers and the open data set test numbers. So that exercise turned out to be a complete waste of time, almost.
So why is this a big deal?
1: It's misleading to say there were XX new cases from XX number of tests, when the test results could have been from swabs taken several days ago. What is the daily test processing backlog? Has the pathology capacity been reached? If so which days?
1: It's misleading to say there were XX new cases from XX number of tests, when the test results could have been from swabs taken several days ago. What is the daily test processing backlog? Has the pathology capacity been reached? If so which days?
2: Timing.
If there was a major outbreak or multiple outbreaks in various locations the true covid-19 pathology processing capacity would become vital, and the time it takes for test results becomes critical in the public health response.
If there was a major outbreak or multiple outbreaks in various locations the true covid-19 pathology processing capacity would become vital, and the time it takes for test results becomes critical in the public health response.
3: It's confusing.
During a public health emergency clarity of communication is critical, especially when you are trying to gain the trust and support of the community. Mixed, confusing messaging makes the public health response more difficult.
During a public health emergency clarity of communication is critical, especially when you are trying to gain the trust and support of the community. Mixed, confusing messaging makes the public health response more difficult.
4: Is it political?
The cynic in me thinks it could be, in order to try and maintain a narrative of being in control, however I have resisted the temptation to go down that path and focus on the facts. This worries me though. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/more-than-40-covid-cases-across-greater-sydney-spark-outbreak-fears-20201229-p56qn0.html
The cynic in me thinks it could be, in order to try and maintain a narrative of being in control, however I have resisted the temptation to go down that path and focus on the facts. This worries me though. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/more-than-40-covid-cases-across-greater-sydney-spark-outbreak-fears-20201229-p56qn0.html
5: We are paying for these tests.
Taxpayers are going to bear the cost for all these covid-19 pathology tests at $40 a PCR test. Given that private pathology labs have been providing a large amount of test processing capacity since June, that's a lot of money.
Taxpayers are going to bear the cost for all these covid-19 pathology tests at $40 a PCR test. Given that private pathology labs have been providing a large amount of test processing capacity since June, that's a lot of money.
6: Are they audited?
@NSWHealth won't even supply a list of the private pathology labs being used, let alone what their daily capacity is and how many tests they have processed. Transparency anyone?? Who are the directors? Shareholders? NSW have completed 4,042,408 tests so far.
@NSWHealth won't even supply a list of the private pathology labs being used, let alone what their daily capacity is and how many tests they have processed. Transparency anyone?? Who are the directors? Shareholders? NSW have completed 4,042,408 tests so far.
I do hope this thread has been of some use for everyone, and let's see if we can get @NSWHeath to be more transparent about their covid-19 test processing capacity and clearer with their daily reporting around testing. https://twitter.com/hardenuppete/status/1343750808723103744
FOOTNOTE: There is a great fact check article here which answers a lot of other questions about testing not answered in my thread. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-10/fact-check-victoria-nsw-covid-19-testing-rates/12312034
