Read on Twitter
Today's @StateHealthIN #coronavirus update doesn't go up for another 45 minutes or so, but ISDH has already updated yesterday's positivity numbers to reflect two changes in how those numbers are calculated.
1/
1/
Change 1: ISDH says a coding error caused the statewide positivity rate to be underreported throughout the pandemic. That fix raises yesterday's rate by 2.3 percentage points, making it 14.1%. 2/
The size of the change varies from day to day. For instance, the peak of the Dec surge was Dec 8, reported as 14.2%; it's now 15.1%, and isn't the peak any more. The revised peak is Dec 2, which changes from 11.4% to 16.9%.
4/
The statewide positivity rate was over ISDH's 15% red line from Nov 11-15, and again from Nov 28-Dec 9.
Indiana has had two periods where positivity was under 5%: Jun 15-27 and Sep 10-27. It's been over 10% since Oct 28, 13 days before we crossed that line on the old numbers.
The statewide positivity rate was over ISDH's 15% red line from Nov 11-15, and again from Nov 28-Dec 9.
Indiana has had two periods where positivity was under 5%: Jun 15-27 and Sep 10-27. It's been over 10% since Oct 28, 13 days before we crossed that line on the old numbers.
5/
Change 2: ISDH has changed its method for calculating county positivity rates. ISDH had been "averaging the average": take the rate for each day in the 7-day window and average those 7 numbers. It's now doing a straight average: 7 days of cases divided by 7 days of tests.
Change 2: ISDH has changed its method for calculating county positivity rates. ISDH had been "averaging the average": take the rate for each day in the 7-day window and average those 7 numbers. It's now doing a straight average: 7 days of cases divided by 7 days of tests.
6/
ISDH predicted this change would be a mixed bag, pushing some counties higher and others, esp. small counties, lower. That doesn't appear to be the case. Yesterday, there were 15 counties under 10% and 25 over 15%. With the revisions, only 6 are below 10%; 55 are over 15%.
ISDH predicted this change would be a mixed bag, pushing some counties higher and others, esp. small counties, lower. That doesn't appear to be the case. Yesterday, there were 15 counties under 10% and 25 over 15%. With the revisions, only 6 are below 10%; 55 are over 15%.
7/
The change pushes Johnson, Morgan and Hendricks Counties, among others, over 15%.
The change pushes Johnson, Morgan and Hendricks Counties, among others, over 15%.
8/
The county positivity rate, along with cases per capita, determines the weekly color-coded risk scores. Those scores have already been updated. Jay County becomes the first county in four weeks to be rated "moderate risk"; 45 counties (vs. 24 last week) are "high risk."
The county positivity rate, along with cases per capita, determines the weekly color-coded risk scores. Those scores have already been updated. Jay County becomes the first county in four weeks to be rated "moderate risk"; 45 counties (vs. 24 last week) are "high risk."
More on this shortly when today's numbers come out. 9/9
