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1. I am convinced that the new "UK variant" of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.1.7) is a big problem. I look forward to seeing more epidemiology by more labs (not my area), but the overall picture plus these new viral load data now have me convinced. (my PhD was RNA virology)
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2. An analysis of 641 COVID-19 cases found "S-negative" (B.1.1.7 inferred) cases had 10 to 100-times higher nasal viral loads than 'regular' COVID-19. Virologically, that is a massive difference. It could easily explain higher transmissibility.
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248834
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248834
3. The authors of that work are appropriately cautious in their interpretations (e.g. they didn't directly sequence confirm B.1.1.7 cases), and it will be very valuable to see similar studies from other sites. But, I find the data compelling.
4. For comparison, the D614G mutant causes a 2 to 4 times increase in nasal viral load.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2020.11.020 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2020.06.043
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2020.11.020 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2020.06.043
5. Regarding protective immunity:
6. The virology of this mutant may also be complicated. For example, the impact of the ORF8a disruption. Much to learn, and I am anxious to see more data, but the viral load data have me convinced enough that, overall, this mutant is significantly different.
7. The emergence of this mutant definitely reinforces the importance of vaccinating as many people as fast as possible with COVID vaccines, and to be vigilant about mask wearing and social distancing.
I wish it were different.
I wish it were different.
