Read on Twitter
Finally got around to coding up a more rigorous version of my RAOB vs NWP analysis maps. Here's 12z GFS initialization vs reality.
Of course we'd expect the 0hr forecast to be pretty darn close to reality, but there are a few possibly significant differences (Lower MS valley?)
Of course we'd expect the 0hr forecast to be pretty darn close to reality, but there are a few possibly significant differences (Lower MS valley?)
Does this tell us anything useful about the forecast for Mon-Wed?
EOF sensitivity analysis from last night (right) suggests lower heights in the Lower MS Valley would tend to push the system farther offshore.
12z EOF has much weaker signals, maybe YQD being +4m is a clue?
EOF sensitivity analysis from last night (right) suggests lower heights in the Lower MS Valley would tend to push the system farther offshore.
12z EOF has much weaker signals, maybe YQD being +4m is a clue?
Bottom line: I'll probably need to expand my verification plot to include other models and runs before we get any useful info regarding Mon-Wed but to the extent that subtle and possibly insignificant clues exist, they might point slightly towards a stall farther NW.
