I've tried to add to @COVID19actuary @ActuaryByDay excellent graph from http://www.covid-arg.com  & look at how vaccination impacts hospital & ICU admission

Several assumptions
- assumed vaccination 100% protective (its best protection is against disease progression)

1/6
Here I've plotted age gps vaccinated & impact on hospital, ICU admissions & deaths

Used @ICNARC June data (end first surge) for ICU admissions & @ISARIC1 BMJ data for hospital admission

ICU admissions hardest to crack as are youngest cohort
-assumes 100% vaccine efficacy

2/6
Here % popln vaccinated & impact on hospital, ICU admissions & deaths

Used @ICNARC June data (end first surge) for ICU admissions & @ISARIC1 BMJ data for hospital admission

-assumes 100% vaccine efficacy

3/6
I've
assumed
-100% vaccine efficacy
-all care home deaths are in >80s
& reduced population of 40-60yr olds by 4.4 million to account for extremely clinically vulnerable & health/social care workers who are in the higher vaccination groups (Gp 2 & 4)

Happy to be corrected!

4/6
Worth noting the ICU admission curve deviates most from mortality curve
2 main reasons

no 1
most deaths don't occur in ICU (6 of 7 hospital deaths occur outside ICU in surge 1) …https://associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/anae.15220

5/6
Worth noting the ICU admission curve deviates most from mortality curve2 main reasonsno 1most deaths don't occur in ICU (6 of 7 hospital deaths occur outside ICU in surge 1) …https://associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/anae.152205/6
Worth noting the ICU admission curve deviates most from mortality curve2 main reasonsno 1most deaths don't occur in ICU (6 of 7 hospital deaths occur outside ICU in surge 1) …https://associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/anae.152205/6
Worth noting the ICU admission curve deviates most from mortality curve
2 main reasons

No 2
patients in ICU are much younger

median age
ICU: 58 in surge 1 & 60 in surge 2 @ICNARC
all deaths: 83 @ONS

6/6
Worth noting the ICU admission curve deviates most from mortality curve2 main reasonsNo 2patients in ICU are much younger median age ICU: 58 in surge 1 & 60 in surge 2 @ICNARC all deaths: 83 @ONS 6/6
Worth noting the ICU admission curve deviates most from mortality curve2 main reasonsNo 2patients in ICU are much younger median age ICU: 58 in surge 1 & 60 in surge 2 @ICNARC all deaths: 83 @ONS 6/6
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