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ARIZONA
CC: @kelliwardaz @dougducey @MarthaMcSally
1) AZ is easy to analyze, given that over 60% of the vote comes from one county - Maricopa.
2) Maricopa has not been "blue" since 1948, not even when Bill Clinton won AZ in 1996...
CC: @kelliwardaz @dougducey @MarthaMcSally
1) AZ is easy to analyze, given that over 60% of the vote comes from one county - Maricopa.
2) Maricopa has not been "blue" since 1948, not even when Bill Clinton won AZ in 1996...
the first time AZ had been won by a D since 1948.
3) AZ joins TX and GA as keys in the RINO coalition, best known for producing some of the worst national Republicans in modern memory (especially you @JeffFlake).
4) Ds made up ground in the past 4 years in registration,
3) AZ joins TX and GA as keys in the RINO coalition, best known for producing some of the worst national Republicans in modern memory (especially you @JeffFlake).
4) Ds made up ground in the past 4 years in registration,
but the state is still R+3%, thanks largely in part to Rs going 1.3 to 1 since primaries ended (and the virus outbreak began).
5) Maricopa County is R+4%, with a lot of the R vote registered as independent. Trump won Maricopa in 2016 with zero credentials...
5) Maricopa County is R+4%, with a lot of the R vote registered as independent. Trump won Maricopa in 2016 with zero credentials...
and with practically no change from Romney's vote total in 2012, with lots of wasted third party votes.
6) When a red state turns blue, or a blue state turns red, it typically happens with the home team (In this case, Rs) bottoming out, or losing votes (see GOP in CO, Ds in PA).
6) When a red state turns blue, or a blue state turns red, it typically happens with the home team (In this case, Rs) bottoming out, or losing votes (see GOP in CO, Ds in PA).
7) This year, Trump added over 400k votes to a state he won by 3.5% in 2016, with record growth in Maricopa County.
8) However, Biden grew over 500k votes, including 338k in Maricopa, where the previous record was 116k (2004).
"Well, COVID, more people voted by mail!"
8) However, Biden grew over 500k votes, including 338k in Maricopa, where the previous record was 116k (2004).
"Well, COVID, more people voted by mail!"
Like when you sell a house, you need to find the most comparable counties possible, like those with similar vote totals and also a key factor here - population growth.
9) I chose counties within 100,000 Dem votes of Maricopa County's 2016 total and came up with 4.
9) I chose counties within 100,000 Dem votes of Maricopa County's 2016 total and came up with 4.
10) I threw out Miami-Dade since Trump's numbers there skewed the average in favor of Reps. Orange (CA), San Diego (CA), Harris (TX), and King (WA) averaged 30% growth in Dem votes on the nose between all four, with all of those already being Dem counties.
11) You can see on this graphic how unbelievably spiked Biden's totals are statewide (top right and left).
You can also see on the bottom right bar charts that Trump's total performance (votes/reg Rs) is in keeping with the strong Republican wins in Maricopa and statewide...
You can also see on the bottom right bar charts that Trump's total performance (votes/reg Rs) is in keeping with the strong Republican wins in Maricopa and statewide...
Far better than his performance in 2016, when he had significant issues with the AZ electorate thanks to the McCain beef.
12) It is awfully hard for me to believe that AZ GOP leadership is unaware of these unprecedented numbers coming from a state that is still a GOP state...
12) It is awfully hard for me to believe that AZ GOP leadership is unaware of these unprecedented numbers coming from a state that is still a GOP state...
and one where the GOP held key offices in Maricopa County, and Trump improved statewide by leaps and bounds from his previous winning margin.
13) We can give Biden 12% more in Maricopa than the next highest comparable county... and he would still lose to Trump.
13) We can give Biden 12% more in Maricopa than the next highest comparable county... and he would still lose to Trump.
14) @kelliwardaz knows all of this and has been fighting this since Fox News made its ridiculous call to stall out the rest of election night, with days and days of ballots left to be counted.
15) @MarthaMcSally probably knows about this too, with a small margin of defeat...
15) @MarthaMcSally probably knows about this too, with a small margin of defeat...
but she took the first opportunity to concede that was afforded to her (surprise). Who appointed her when she already lost once? That would be @dougducey, who thinks he will still have a career when sworn testimony of deliberate distribution of improper ballot marking devices...
ballot harvesting, and other prominent methods of fraud are plentiful, and he does nothing about it.
16) Yet more proof that most of the Republican Party is hopelessly corrupt, unwilling to stand up for transparency, and can be sold to the highest bidder.
16) Yet more proof that most of the Republican Party is hopelessly corrupt, unwilling to stand up for transparency, and can be sold to the highest bidder.
17) They will continue to campaign on one thing - "don't let them turn our state blue." Not on fixing problems and preserving liberties - but on "you have to pick us because we are less bad."
The TX GOP used to have a huge attitude and win urban counties, minority counties...
The TX GOP used to have a huge attitude and win urban counties, minority counties...
and everything else. Ever since they went into "prevent defense," Ds smelled blood in water and started making inroads, esp. at state level.
As long as we are content to keep sending wimps back to offices, then you will continue to see this level of treachery.
#IntelPatriot
As long as we are content to keep sending wimps back to offices, then you will continue to see this level of treachery.
#IntelPatriot
