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This is a thread reviewing #Taiwan's #COVID situation evolution in 2020 by numbers.
We discovered our 1st case on Jan 21st. Before 2021 started, a total number of 799 cases were confirmed. 7 people died. At the busiest moment, 300 patients were in hospitals. 1/11
We discovered our 1st case on Jan 21st. Before 2021 started, a total number of 799 cases were confirmed. 7 people died. At the busiest moment, 300 patients were in hospitals. 1/11
Here is the distribution of the origins of 799 cases:
- 707 non-local (704 imported, 1 unknown, 2 on plane),
- 56 local (46 w/ links to other cases, 10 w/o), &
- 36 on a diplomatic fleet.
This include a 253-day streak w/o any local transmission (2020-04-13 to 2020-12-21). 2/11
- 707 non-local (704 imported, 1 unknown, 2 on plane),
- 56 local (46 w/ links to other cases, 10 w/o), &
- 36 on a diplomatic fleet.
This include a 253-day streak w/o any local transmission (2020-04-13 to 2020-12-21). 2/11
The previous figure also shows how the situation was perceived in Taiwan:
- a 1st wave before Feb,
- a 2nd wave (TWNese diaspora fleeing the West) in Mar & Apr,
- a calm period in May & Jun,
- then a small 3rd wave in Jul, &
- an ongoing 4th incoming wave in winter.
3/11
- a 1st wave before Feb,
- a 2nd wave (TWNese diaspora fleeing the West) in Mar & Apr,
- a calm period in May & Jun,
- then a small 3rd wave in Jul, &
- an ongoing 4th incoming wave in winter.
3/11
Let's check where COVID is detected. A bit explanations:
- "quarantine" (QT) applies to people having high-risk travel history;
- "isolation" applies to close contacts of confirmed cases;
- "monitoring" applies to people who were QTed or isolated 7 days ago.
4/11
- "quarantine" (QT) applies to people having high-risk travel history;
- "isolation" applies to close contacts of confirmed cases;
- "monitoring" applies to people who were QTed or isolated 7 days ago.
4/11
Among 704 cases w/ the info of detection channel, more than 84% were found via airports + quarantine + isolation. This is the power of border testing & effective isolation.
Note also: if no arrival QT, 354 positive cases (half of our data) would be unseen. QT is a must.
5/11
Note also: if no arrival QT, 354 positive cases (half of our data) would be unseen. QT is a must.
5/11
Number of tests per day. There exists a clinical definition (dynamically changing) from which a suspicious case must be tested (blue). Doctors could be fined or go to jail otherwise. Doctors also have the flexibility to test those who don't strictly meet clin. def. (green).
6/11
6/11
From above, we see Taiwan conducts <1000 PCR tests per day. It doesn't need mass testing, since COVID is not transmitting locally. However, it doesn't want mass testing either, since we mainly rely on QT to identify the infected people. QT is a key.
7/11
7/11
These are 7-day average of:
- positive rate (= num of confirmed cases / num of tests)
- arrival incidence rate (= num of imported cases / num of arrivals)
- local incidence rate (= num of local cases / population)
We recover all 4 peaks mentioned in Tweet 3 of this thread. 8/11
- positive rate (= num of confirmed cases / num of tests)
- arrival incidence rate (= num of imported cases / num of arrivals)
- local incidence rate (= num of local cases / population)
We recover all 4 peaks mentioned in Tweet 3 of this thread. 8/11
Border statistics. Landslide because 14-day QT scares people off.
However, by sacrificing foreign tourism & some businesses, we gain actually much more (economically speaking!). If you handle the situation well, domestic tourists won't disappoint you! 9/11
However, by sacrificing foreign tourism & some businesses, we gain actually much more (economically speaking!). If you handle the situation well, domestic tourists won't disappoint you! 9/11
All plots above are based on the data collected from good-minded netizens, as TWNese govt is a bit reluctant at updating info in a systematic way. Tiny errors or typos could exist but definitely not harmful nor disinforming. 10/11
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRM7gTCUvuCqR3zdcLGccuGLv1s7dpDcQ-MeH_AZxnCXtW4iqVmEzUnDSKR7o8OiMLPMelEpxE7Pi4Q/pubhtml#
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRM7gTCUvuCqR3zdcLGccuGLv1s7dpDcQ-MeH_AZxnCXtW4iqVmEzUnDSKR7o8OiMLPMelEpxE7Pi4Q/pubhtml#
Finally, for people who want to follow the newest COVID situation in Taiwan, a webpage is dedicated. Looks like it will last for a while. 11/11 https://linc-tw.github.io/COVID_breakdown/index.html
