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40k sell wall? ... here is the first follow up to the post from last night, and it is going to be about the resistance we faced today, this makes a lot of sense to me based on a few different factors. let me tell you why I think so 1/
as I was browsing @bitcoinflowio today, I turned up the parameters to only include the trades that big players are making (less noise, more signal)...if you check the premium on the right hand side, you can see the amount of money we are talking here 2/
the first thing that sticks out to me is the sheer amount of green (duh) but what is maybe not so obvious is the strike price for the different contracts, and the strikes chosen are mostly ITM (already have delta 1 exposure) 3/
to me, this says one thing, and that thing is that these players see an upward movement, but not to the extent that we have been seeing in the last few weeks (since Christmas well say) otherwise they would be playing the wings 4/
the nextthing sticks out to me is the obvious block of call selling...the strike is at 40k and the expiry is also on 1/29... we take the total of the trades, and see that the contracts value in total around 83 BTC (approx 3.3million USD notional, so a very big dick player) 5/
what i take from this is that somebody out there is putting 3.3 million into the idea that were below 40k on 1/29 (deribit offering european style contracts, this player doesnt risk early exercise from counterparty) 6/
me? im not going to countertrade someone with a 3.3 million incentive to see us below 40k at the end of the month. i'm certainly not anybody that would be able to "do battle" with this type of player. people like @AWice @SBF_Alameda @zhusu ?...thats a diff story 7/
to me, when i saw these contracts come through the tape, i had a strong suspicion that we were not breaking 40k for any sustained time today, tomorrow, possibly not until February. now, this guy/gal could unwind at any moment, and is no longer incentivized to suppress price 8/
but you have to be on top of your shit and watching like a hawk to see if this is going to happen, and even then the evidence would be circumstantial. going into the middle/end of the month im going to be conservative with all bets, and focus on capital preservation 9/
if you are invested in the space, the last few weeks have been good to you, dont give up the gains or get krabbed to shit, its not worth it. these guys WILL drink your milkshake if you let them 10/
11/11 @ByzGeneral @lightcrypto @AltcoinPsycho @7ommyZero @GenesisVol @qblockz can offer a deeper understanding or correction of any misinterpretation i have applied to the situation... and this is literally based off order flow only, nothing else so i may be missing something.
