If the latest UK lockdown follows the pattern of the first, we should expect peak COVID-19 deaths around Jan 22. There will then follow a gradual decline. The difference, of course, is a more transmissible variant, first dose vaccinations, winter, and flagging public support.
But let’s assume a similar pattern to last Spring. The government modified restrictions 7 weeks after lockdown, encouraging going to work and more outdoor exercise. Applied to the present lockdown, that would be around Feb 24.
Last Spring, it took until Jul 4 before pubs, restaurants, and hairdressers could open. Again, applied to the present lockdown, that takes us to Apr 14. That’s after Easter.
So my respectful advice to government is to better manage expectations. Suggesting we will be out of lockdown by mid-February is wrong and, when we fail to meet that deadline, will only further lose public confidence.
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