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Sorry Darren, too big a question to reply in a single Tweet so you're getting a quick thread 
I'm at a loss with anything to contribute here now as pretty much everything looks on track with Novacyt, but maybe worth looking at what that is.
#NCYT #NVYTF #ALNOV https://twitter.com/DarrenE1991/status/1347476863908798464
I'm at a loss with anything to contribute here now as pretty much everything looks on track with Novacyt, but maybe worth looking at what that is.
#NCYT #NVYTF #ALNOV https://twitter.com/DarrenE1991/status/1347476863908798464
Getting the bad stuff out of the way first - sentiment.
1. Testing longevity. No testing company working as an NHS supplier can or will come out and say we're going to be testing covid for years at X rate.
That is completely at odds with UK Gov's spirit of optimism.
1. Testing longevity. No testing company working as an NHS supplier can or will come out and say we're going to be testing covid for years at X rate.
That is completely at odds with UK Gov's spirit of optimism.
We've been played carrot and stick since the pandemic began. Boris has hopes on vaccines simply fixing it, but he's not that stupid.
Pretty sure by now we all know that testing infrastructure is being currently built to handle covid for years down the line.
Pretty sure by now we all know that testing infrastructure is being currently built to handle covid for years down the line.
If anyone thinks multi-billion testing infrastructure is currently being built for a pandemic that's magically ending in spring they need to step back from the narrative and see what's actually happening in front of them.
Personal thoughts here is that no matter how much Novacyt and UK Gov plans to test in the months and years ahead, we won't be shown those forecasts. Maybe get some vague indications at key RNS or AGMs by Mullis.
I also definitely believe that Novacyt's covid only profit for the next few years will exceed that generated by many FTSE 250 midcaps. That was something I considered around WinterPlex's release, but am more certain of now since the rapid expansion of the covid product lines.
No-one is developing a new test for release in 2021 for just a few months sales - not anyone who is front and centre of the pandemic response within a government and understands their needs and strategy.
2. Second point on sentiment.
Say all of this did somehow fix itself, what is Novacyt's business going forward if we put covid in a box for now. We know what it used to be - low margin RUO diagnostics.
Say all of this did somehow fix itself, what is Novacyt's business going forward if we put covid in a box for now. We know what it used to be - low margin RUO diagnostics.
We know what if will look like going forward in part - high margin clinical use diagnostics, centralised, decentralised and service based.
We don't know what those tests will be exactly and what the revenues look like.
We don't know what those tests will be exactly and what the revenues look like.
We've talked about this endlessly, but this is the crux of it. If Novacyt put this information out to market, then mcap will unlock and the business won't be valued on cash. It can then get a P/E ratio in line with the diagnostics industry.
It can then take in institutional investment that will stabilise the share price in the years ahead.
That won't happen in a day or even a single RNS, it'll be a gradual filtering through to the market after Mullis puts out a roadmap for the company's future. I think that will happen in Q1 or Q2 this year with a major update at the AGM.
3. Short term sentiment fixes are abundant however. Nothing has this many catalysts. There are a number of tenders, new products and potential contracts they relate to, and a revenue RNS in January. M&A are definitely on the cards too, and can come anytime.
Sentiment aside, I think it's important to get practical and see what's actually going on here.
We have a company that R&D'd 17 products since the pandemic hit and most of those products are on the market.
We have a company that R&D'd 17 products since the pandemic hit and most of those products are on the market.
LFT and LAMP land soon and PROmate is potentially revolutionary in the decentralised testing space and should see Novacyt get a lead on competitors. I think a new device in the Q range would be a nice companion to the PROmate workflow. Suspect this is in development already.
Question everyone needs to ask is - what are all the R&D teams at Novacyt working on now. Did they all just stop developing tech? Maybe just hired all the new scientists into R&D for kicks? They didn't hire graduate schemers you'll notice.
They hired new members with prior assay etc. experience.
So we know the existing teams can put out new tech at a rate of around 1 per 3 weeks in 2020. We need to consider what an expanded R&D team with new patents under their belt are working on now for 2021+ releases.
So we know the existing teams can put out new tech at a rate of around 1 per 3 weeks in 2020. We need to consider what an expanded R&D team with new patents under their belt are working on now for 2021+ releases.
We have nothing on this.
Personal speculation is that an antigen covid LFT and ultimately antigen/flu multiplex LFT is a natural conclusion given Microgen's experience with antigen LFTs, and the commercial sense with return on investment there.
Personal speculation is that an antigen covid LFT and ultimately antigen/flu multiplex LFT is a natural conclusion given Microgen's experience with antigen LFTs, and the commercial sense with return on investment there.
The new device would come from IT-IS, which had new hires. But most hires were into PrimerDesign so that's where most of the new tech will come from in 2021.
I've a feeling we'll see some interesting non-covid tech for high revenue markets this year.
I've a feeling we'll see some interesting non-covid tech for high revenue markets this year.
In terms of selling new tech, Novacyt has a new network with VersaLab in the UK and American (EU soon too), but those won't be testing for anything other than covid for at least 2021 onwards. Distributors are global, but Novacyt isn't happy there.
Mullis said at AGM it's all about direct sales and that's where we'll see more recruitment in 2021 I'd assume. Any regions you see direct sales hiring this year, you can expect nice revenues from in the years ahead. Will be curious to see where they push to first. US most likely.
This is crux here of the company's re-rate and in terms of the share price, I don't think that's been their priority in 2020. Again personally, I think they've been overburdened by developing the company internally and we've seen the seams start to burst with a quick mend..
with Dyer being moved to focus purely on corporate growth, and bringing in a new CFO to handle his previous role. Wouldn't be surprised to see more strategic reshuffling at board level this year either.
Mullis and co. have all dug in. They know what they're seeing here and it is a midcap enterprise, hence them putting their personal cash in. Between the lot of them they've bought over £600,000 of shares over £7, and over £8 too. When you're having doubts - come back to this.
Getting a bit longer than expected so will cut this off now, but for my personal view on Novacyt - no it hasn't changed. The fundamentals have significantly improved since I was pushing this as my key pick for a safe investment for 2021. I wasn't aware of PROmate, VersaLab, LFT..
etc. back in September.
These are all significant in their own way and the company has massively grown in size with around 100 experienced hires in 2020 and new partnerships many within Universities and the NHS and Gov.
These are all significant in their own way and the company has massively grown in size with around 100 experienced hires in 2020 and new partnerships many within Universities and the NHS and Gov.
I just have nothing more to offer here and want to see how it all plays out. I'm expecting a lot fo surprised in 2021 as we have no new info on any new product development outside of covid or even within covid.
M&A is also beyond our ability to guess.
M&A is also beyond our ability to guess.
Only thing we can say with conviction going into 2021 is:
1: Revenues are high
2: R&D speed is high
3: Company expansion is high
4: CEO has midcap agenda
1: Revenues are high
2: R&D speed is high
3: Company expansion is high
4: CEO has midcap agenda
Why aren't institutions all buying in then?
Well what if I told you about this wicked company that made virtually nothing in 2019 and is not going midcap in a couple of years from there because of all this cool tech and M&A they're going to do?
Well what if I told you about this wicked company that made virtually nothing in 2019 and is not going midcap in a couple of years from there because of all this cool tech and M&A they're going to do?
You'd say that sounds ridiculous - because you've never seen that before. Because it doesn't happen. It just sounds like another AIM ramp and most II's won't even touch AIM small caps/micro caps.
They manage 100s if not 1000s of stocks - they don't sit and dig for morsels of info on each stock all day, they need to see actual revenues and growth they can have equity analysts crunch and push to the portfolio manager.
Do not expect an influx of II investment until Novacyt puts out revenues and a proper roadmap.
That time will come. But it won't happen before then.
Maybe a few cheeky funds or savvy stock pickers with their eye on the ball yes, but most - no chance.
That time will come. But it won't happen before then.
Maybe a few cheeky funds or savvy stock pickers with their eye on the ball yes, but most - no chance.
Longer than expected and did actually cut a ton of fluff out there so shorten it.
Apologies!
As for my silence - I'm working on something at the moment and snowed under, just don't have time to face Twitter messages at the moment, but I am definitely still in..
Apologies!
As for my silence - I'm working on something at the moment and snowed under, just don't have time to face Twitter messages at the moment, but I am definitely still in..
watching closely, and still put this down as the safest high growth stock for 2021 onwards. I haven't sold any shares and have added during the volatility.
I do want to contribute more again, but am looking at other methods of doing that at the moment...
I do want to contribute more again, but am looking at other methods of doing that at the moment...
just need some time to build that! 
