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1. ZIMBABWE COVID-19 SITUATION: AVOIDING FALSE COMPARISONS
So “... 1% of the people who get COVID-19 survive, so why lock down the whole economy...” has been the argument in these streets
People are already dying of malaria, during childbirth, road accidents, etc so why COVID?
So “... 1% of the people who get COVID-19 survive, so why lock down the whole economy...” has been the argument in these streets
People are already dying of malaria, during childbirth, road accidents, etc so why COVID?
2. It is true that the vast majority of people who will get COVID-19 will recover, with no or very little treatment.
Looking at the data the COVID-19 case fatality rate (deaths per number of cases) in neighbouring SA is around 2.5. This means 2.5% are expected not to survive.
Looking at the data the COVID-19 case fatality rate (deaths per number of cases) in neighbouring SA is around 2.5. This means 2.5% are expected not to survive.
3. From looking at data from countries with adequate health facilities, around 5% of COVID-19 cases require hospitalisation. These are largely people who get seriously ill & need some form of life support to fight off virus.
At a glance, these rates do not look too alarming, ...
At a glance, these rates do not look too alarming, ...
4. But they are not the key defining feature of COVID-19. What separates COVID-19 from other diseases is it’s “reproductive rate” (R-number)
The R-number represents the number of new cases expected to result from each COVID-19 case. They measure the contagiousness of the virus!
The R-number represents the number of new cases expected to result from each COVID-19 case. They measure the contagiousness of the virus!
5. Without any measures to slow down spread of COVID-19, the R-number can be as high as 3 or more. This means for every case, at least 3 more people will be infected.
Car accidents kill, but they are not infectious. The same with pregnancy complications, cancer, diabetes, etc.
Car accidents kill, but they are not infectious. The same with pregnancy complications, cancer, diabetes, etc.
6. This is not to say the other killers should be ignored, but allowing COVID-19 to spread unchecked risks worsening mortality rates for these. I will explain how.
Let’s suppose every COVID case will lead to 2 cases over a period of 2 days (R-number = 2)
Let’s suppose every COVID case will lead to 2 cases over a period of 2 days (R-number = 2)
7. After 4 days we expect 4 total cases. After 8 days, 16 cases. After 12 day 64. After 20 days there will be 1,024 cases. This what epidemiologist term exponential growth in infections. It happens when R-number is above 1.
This is what makes COVID-19 very different and deadly!
This is what makes COVID-19 very different and deadly!
8. Most health issues being compared to COVID-19 have R-number of ZERO or close. They are not infectious.
Now, let’s suppose Zimbabwe started with 1,000 cases. This means after 20 days, as many as 1 million people would have contracted the virus. That’s a lot of people!!
Now, let’s suppose Zimbabwe started with 1,000 cases. This means after 20 days, as many as 1 million people would have contracted the virus. That’s a lot of people!!
9. If 2.5% of people are not expected to recover, that is 25,000 people dying over 20 days.
If 5% of the cases require hospitalisation, that is 50,000 high dependence or intensive care beds taken up COVID-19 patients. Our health system has no capacity to deal with this.
If 5% of the cases require hospitalisation, that is 50,000 high dependence or intensive care beds taken up COVID-19 patients. Our health system has no capacity to deal with this.
10. All the hospitals beds that are supposed to accommodate cardiac arrest patients, road accident victims, etc will be taken up by COVID-19 patients, still many more of the 50,000 will go untreated. They are likely to die, pushing the 2.5% COVID-19 case fatality rate up.
11. The non-COVID-19 cases that cannot be accommodated in hospitals will lead to even more deaths.
COVID-19 affects everyone, including healthcare staff. As doctors and nurses fall sick, we will have few medical staff to treat patients.
COVID-19 overruns the health system!!
COVID-19 affects everyone, including healthcare staff. As doctors and nurses fall sick, we will have few medical staff to treat patients.
COVID-19 overruns the health system!!
12. CONCLUSIONS
None of the diseases people are comparing COVID-19 with behave in this way or have similar impacts on the health system.
Only a small fraction of people who get COVID-19 will die, but because it has potential to infect vast numbers, it kills more people
None of the diseases people are comparing COVID-19 with behave in this way or have similar impacts on the health system. Only a small fraction of people who get COVID-19 will die, but because it has potential to infect vast numbers, it kills more people
13.
it’s not a matter of COVID-19 versus other health conditions. COVID-19 cases will suck up the capacity required to treat other health conditions
the large number of people who will die from COVID-19 support families. COVID-19 will contribute to poverty in future
it’s not a matter of COVID-19 versus other health conditions. COVID-19 cases will suck up the capacity required to treat other health conditions the large number of people who will die from COVID-19 support families. COVID-19 will contribute to poverty in future
14. If uncontrolled COVID-19 is bad for all health! And, it is bad for poverty!
Later I will tackle, the misconception that lockdown causes more economic harm than the virus
@MlamboProf @sekaikuvarika @BusisaMoyo @czionline @ZEPARU1 @nigelchanakira @ShingiMunyeza @xandatoto
Later I will tackle, the misconception that lockdown causes more economic harm than the virus
@MlamboProf @sekaikuvarika @BusisaMoyo @czionline @ZEPARU1 @nigelchanakira @ShingiMunyeza @xandatoto
