Read on Twitter
1) The B117 variant is a killer. We cannot afford to have it in AB
If we have 1000 cases/day now, with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 600/day in 2 weeks
But w/ added transmissibility of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have *3000* new cases/day instead
If we have 1000 cases/day now, with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 600/day in 2 weeks
But w/ added transmissibility of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have *3000* new cases/day instead
2) If B.1.1.7 is ~60% more transmissible, moderate shut-downs might not be sufficient for R<1.
Only strict 1st wave style Austria or NZ measures would be able to control B.1.1.7 spread.
Only strict 1st wave style Austria or NZ measures would be able to control B.1.1.7 spread.
3) The window of opportunity to get ahead of B117 is very narrow.
In South West London in just 2 weeks the amount of B117 grew from something quenchable, into an epidemic that is hard to controll even with very strict measures.
In South West London in just 2 weeks the amount of B117 grew from something quenchable, into an epidemic that is hard to controll even with very strict measures.
4)
In Alberta by the time we can clearly see that we have B.1.1.7 problem (i.e. detect B.1.1.7 community cases), it might be very hard to quickly and effectively solve it.
In Alberta by the time we can clearly see that we have B.1.1.7 problem (i.e. detect B.1.1.7 community cases), it might be very hard to quickly and effectively solve it.
5)
The window of opportunity to get ahead of B117 is very narrow.
Ireland missed this window of opportunity
https://twitter.com/VanGennepD/status/1347353865507790849?s=20
The window of opportunity to get ahead of B117 is very narrow.
Ireland missed this window of opportunity
https://twitter.com/VanGennepD/status/1347353865507790849?s=20
6)
The new variant is extremely difficult to control. We cannot afford to have it in AB. We must nip it in the bud to avoid a disaster.
B117 outbreaks may already be burning in AB. They can still be extinguished, but the bigger they become, the harder it will be to put them out.
The new variant is extremely difficult to control. We cannot afford to have it in AB. We must nip it in the bud to avoid a disaster.
B117 outbreaks may already be burning in AB. They can still be extinguished, but the bigger they become, the harder it will be to put them out.
7)
Crush the virus or we will have a disaster.
B117 is a beast
mandate supervised quarantine for ALL incoming travellers (international & interprovincial)
implement the strongest measures possible (supported lockdown NZ style, schools closed, TTI) https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1346899021621813249?s=20
Crush the virus or we will have a disaster.
B117 is a beast
mandate supervised quarantine for ALL incoming travellers (international & interprovincial)implement the strongest measures possible (supported lockdown NZ style, schools closed, TTI) https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1346899021621813249?s=20
8)
BC already reported B.1.1.7 community cases. Once established, this variant will spread like a wildfire.
We need to mandate supervised quarantine for all interprovincial travellers immediately.
BC already reported B.1.1.7 community cases. Once established, this variant will spread like a wildfire.
We need to mandate supervised quarantine for all interprovincial travellers immediately.
9)
An excellent article about B.1.1.7 by @kakape
@firefoxx66 : “... we are in another situation right now where a lot of Europe is kind of sitting and looking,”
Alberta and Canada, please act strong and fast to prevent a disaster. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/viral-mutations-may-cause-another-very-very-bad-covid-19-wave-scientists-warn
An excellent article about B.1.1.7 by @kakape
@firefoxx66 : “... we are in another situation right now where a lot of Europe is kind of sitting and looking,”
Alberta and Canada, please act strong and fast to prevent a disaster. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/viral-mutations-may-cause-another-very-very-bad-covid-19-wave-scientists-warn
10)
And what worst will happen if we "overshoot"?
@firefoxx66 : "[If we overshoot] we get cases so low that we can get rid of a lot of restrictions.”
If we "overshoot", we will stop COVID community transmission by early March. And finally have our normalcy back.
#COVIDzero
And what worst will happen if we "overshoot"?
@firefoxx66 : "[If we overshoot] we get cases so low that we can get rid of a lot of restrictions.”
If we "overshoot", we will stop COVID community transmission by early March. And finally have our normalcy back.
#COVIDzero
