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A couple of puzzles in the ONS deaths series which is by death certificate compared to PHE which is "within 28 days of a positive test".
1. Why has the ONS trend diverged so much from the PHE since Nov (though both are increasing)?
Here are both trends as % of their April peak.
1. Why has the ONS trend diverged so much from the PHE since Nov (though both are increasing)?
Here are both trends as % of their April peak.
So by 29 Dec, PHE reached about 60% of the April peak, whilst the ONS measure only reached about 40%. Of course both will go up further given the surge in cases, but still a puzzle (to me at least) why they have they diverged so much.
Note the latest ONS figures go up to 1st Jan but I have dropped the last few days as these will be updated. There may be more than usual catch up to come in the registration data over Christmas, but the divergence starts in early November.
Second puzzle: so far, Covid-deaths in England have reached 40% of April peak. Scotland reached 33% (on 20th Dec).
In contrast, Wales got up to 81% (on 21 Dec) of their peak, NI 87% (23 Dec).
Why have Scot & Eng deaths been so much further from their April peak than Wales & NI?
In contrast, Wales got up to 81% (on 21 Dec) of their peak, NI 87% (23 Dec).
Why have Scot & Eng deaths been so much further from their April peak than Wales & NI?
I realise the death certificate data will not reflect the most recent surge in cases and which will presumably push up deaths quite a bit more in Scot, Eng & NI, but not sure that will solve this puzzle.
Any ideas?
Any ideas?
