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/THREAD/Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Corbin Burnes, SP
Milwaukee #Brewers
26 years old
Drafted: 2016; Round 4, Pick 5 (MIL)
Let’s get started...
2020 Stat Line:
12 G
59.2 IP
4-1
2.11 ERA
1.02 WHIP
2.04 FIP
2.99 xFIP
3.18 SIERA
36.7 K%
10.0 BB%
26.7 K-BB%
.174 AVG
.285 BABIP
80.1% LOB
0.30 HR/9
12 G
59.2 IP
4-1
2.11 ERA
1.02 WHIP
2.04 FIP
2.99 xFIP
3.18 SIERA
36.7 K%
10.0 BB%
26.7 K-BB%
.174 AVG
.285 BABIP
80.1% LOB
0.30 HR/9
Burnes was a trendy pick for a 2019 breakout after going 7-0 w/ 2.61 ERA w/ 35 K in 38 IP in 2018.
That did NOT happen.
After 4 starts his ERA was 10.70 & he was removed from the MIL rotation.
He ended the season w/ a 8.82 ERA, 6.09 FIP, & a chip on his shoulder.
That did NOT happen.
After 4 starts his ERA was 10.70 & he was removed from the MIL rotation.
He ended the season w/ a 8.82 ERA, 6.09 FIP, & a chip on his shoulder.
The problem did not seem to be mechanical though. In fact, Burnes slider still generated 70 K.
He simply made too many mistakes w/ the fastball, too many HR. Too predictable.
Burnes took this as a challenge & took several steps in the offseason to improve, including LASIK.
He simply made too many mistakes w/ the fastball, too many HR. Too predictable.
Burnes took this as a challenge & took several steps in the offseason to improve, including LASIK.
Burnes hired mental strength coach Brian Cain, who put him through a training program designed for Navy SEALS.
The goal was to focus & use every opportunity to fine tune routine for the sole purpose of improvement.
This is the exact work ethic that led him to the big leagues.
The goal was to focus & use every opportunity to fine tune routine for the sole purpose of improvement.
This is the exact work ethic that led him to the big leagues.
Burnes was not a “can’t miss” prospect in high school. In fact, only 2 D1 schools made him an offer to play college ball.
Even at St.Mary’s he had growing pains, fighting & improving every step of the way.
This attitude earned him a trip to the Cape Cod league & MILs attention.
Even at St.Mary’s he had growing pains, fighting & improving every step of the way.
This attitude earned him a trip to the Cape Cod league & MILs attention.
Burnes, beyond improving the mental aspect, wanted to be less predictable.
Until now he depended on a 4-Seam/Slider combo, & hitters were waiting for a fastball.
The results speak for themselves, as his ERA drop (8.82
2.11) was largest improvement since Roy Halladay in 2001.
Until now he depended on a 4-Seam/Slider combo, & hitters were waiting for a fastball.
The results speak for themselves, as his ERA drop (8.82
2.11) was largest improvement since Roy Halladay in 2001.
Before we get into Burnes arsenal readjustment, let’s take a look at the Plate Discipline results from 2020:
SwStr: 14.5%
O-Swing: 33.4%
Z-Swing: 66.1%
O-Contact: 54.6%
Z-Contact: 80.1%
F-Strike: 52.9%
Zone: 35.3%
These numbers are great, but so were they in 2019
SwStr: 14.5%
O-Swing: 33.4%
Z-Swing: 66.1%
O-Contact: 54.6%
Z-Contact: 80.1%
F-Strike: 52.9%
Zone: 35.3%
These numbers are great, but so were they in 2019
So what changes were made?
Burnes knew he had a great slider, but how does he make it better?
The 4-seam had cut which blended too much w/ the slider, so first thought was to “straighten” it, improve ride.
But instead, it was decided to go in a different direction: tunneling.
Burnes knew he had a great slider, but how does he make it better?
The 4-seam had cut which blended too much w/ the slider, so first thought was to “straighten” it, improve ride.
But instead, it was decided to go in a different direction: tunneling.
2019 Pitch Mix:
52.5% 4-Seam
31.0% Slider
7.8% Curve
4.1% Change
3.7% Sinker
2020 Pitch Mix:
33.1% Sinker (96.5 mph)
31.5% CUTTER (93.3 mph)
12.7% Slider (86.9 mph)
11.2% Change (89.3 mph)
9.1% Curve (81.5 mph)
2.5% 4-Seam (96.2 mph)
52.5% 4-Seam
31.0% Slider
7.8% Curve
4.1% Change
3.7% Sinker
2020 Pitch Mix:
33.1% Sinker (96.5 mph)
31.5% CUTTER (93.3 mph)
12.7% Slider (86.9 mph)
11.2% Change (89.3 mph)
9.1% Curve (81.5 mph)
2.5% 4-Seam (96.2 mph)
Burnes added a sinker as his primary pitch to “tunnel” w/ his slider.
Tunnel: To have 2 pitches follow same trajectory long enough to look identical to the hitter, only to break opposite directions.
Sinker looks like the slider, but instead of breaking away to RHH, it breaks in
Tunnel: To have 2 pitches follow same trajectory long enough to look identical to the hitter, only to break opposite directions.
Sinker looks like the slider, but instead of breaking away to RHH, it breaks in
Burnes uses the sinker as both a get ahead & put away pitch.
It does not have elite movement but makes up for it in velocity.
He worked w/ B.Woodruff to work on his sinker as well as master hand placement, which allows him that arm side movement.
The sinker sets everything up
It does not have elite movement but makes up for it in velocity.
He worked w/ B.Woodruff to work on his sinker as well as master hand placement, which allows him that arm side movement.
The sinker sets everything up
This is where the danger (to hitters) comes.
In addition to his sinker (which moves arm side) Burnes added a Cutter which moves right to left & appears to look like his slider (hard for hitters to identify)
32.3% O-Swing
70.6% Contact
58.2% Zone
15.1% SwStr
8.0 pVal
2.3” VMov
In addition to his sinker (which moves arm side) Burnes added a Cutter which moves right to left & appears to look like his slider (hard for hitters to identify)
32.3% O-Swing
70.6% Contact
58.2% Zone
15.1% SwStr
8.0 pVal
2.3” VMov
The cutter comes in at 94 mph w/ elite spin & is especially confusing when mixed w/ the slider:
38.8% O-Swing
40.3% Contact
26.8% SwStr
61.3% K rate
wRC+ (-49)
4.2 pVal
1.6” VertMov
3.5” HorzMov
38.8% O-Swing
40.3% Contact
26.8% SwStr
61.3% K rate
wRC+ (-49)
4.2 pVal
1.6” VertMov
3.5” HorzMov
If you’re an opposing batter watching Burnes paint corners w/ sinker/cutter, only to see this slider tunnel in & fall off the map?
You are screwed.
The approach also makes the poor 25.4% Zone rate tolerable.
THIS is how poor command improves while still utilizing weapons.
You are screwed.
The approach also makes the poor 25.4% Zone rate tolerable.
THIS is how poor command improves while still utilizing weapons.
Burnes offers hard pitches going both right AND left while giving the hitter little time to choose due to velo.
Not many can match spin/velo w/ Trevor Bauer & use it on both sides of the plate.
More options comes w/ more confidence. Burnes has that now
But wait there’s more...
Not many can match spin/velo w/ Trevor Bauer & use it on both sides of the plate.
More options comes w/ more confidence. Burnes has that now
But wait there’s more...
That’s right, Burnes mixes in a Changeup (89.3 mph) & Curveball (81.5 mph) as well.
Change/Curve:
O-Swing 31.2/27.1
Contact 57.7/55.9
Zone 31.9/34.4
SwStr 19.5/16.7
pVal 0.7/2.6
K% 34.8/61.9
ISO 0.0/0.0
wRC+ 18/(-46)
Not bad for “after thought” offerings right?
Change/Curve:
O-Swing 31.2/27.1
Contact 57.7/55.9
Zone 31.9/34.4
SwStr 19.5/16.7
pVal 0.7/2.6
K% 34.8/61.9
ISO 0.0/0.0
wRC+ 18/(-46)
Not bad for “after thought” offerings right?
The slower curve is thrown just 9% of the time, but has a 2.8” horizontal break, 47% whiff rate, & a 95th percentile spin rate.
This is the pitch, when mixed w/ all of the hard offerings, that can make a hitter look truly foolish.
See exhibit A: Hunter Dozier
This is the pitch, when mixed w/ all of the hard offerings, that can make a hitter look truly foolish.
See exhibit A: Hunter Dozier
If you check spin based vs observed movement (below) you can see how this arsenal can give a hitter fits.
Sinker right & down
Cutter right to left w/ velo
Slider dramatic right to left w/ drop
Curve right to left w/ less velo
Change disrupts timing
Sinker right & down Cutter right to left w/ velo Slider dramatic right to left w/ drop Curve right to left w/ less velo Change disrupts timing
The offseason changes & pitch mix overhaul resulted in the following 2020 Batted Ball data:
LD - 19.2%
GB - 46.4%
FB - 34.4%
HR/FB - 4.7%
Hard Hit - 34.4%
Weak - 5.6%
Exit Velocity - 86.9 mph
Barrel % - 7.2
LA - 9.7°
xwOBAcon - .361
LD - 19.2%
GB - 46.4%
FB - 34.4%
HR/FB - 4.7%
Hard Hit - 34.4%
Weak - 5.6%
Exit Velocity - 86.9 mph
Barrel % - 7.2
LA - 9.7°
xwOBAcon - .361
So what is there to worry about?
- Small sample (59.2 IP)
- 4.7 HR/FB%
- 10% BB rate (6th worst w/ 50+ IP)
- “The Central Hub”
All valid concerns.
2.04 FIP/2.99 xFIP should alleviate concerns for batted ball regression, but BB rate can not be dismissed.
What happens over 162?
- Small sample (59.2 IP)
- 4.7 HR/FB%
- 10% BB rate (6th worst w/ 50+ IP)
- “The Central Hub”
All valid concerns.
2.04 FIP/2.99 xFIP should alleviate concerns for batted ball regression, but BB rate can not be dismissed.
What happens over 162?
Burnes will not be facing the lower tier lineups of the Central all season, & his BB rate should force a blowup here or there.
Regression may not occur in the traditional sense, but a full season is likely to unveil a few warts.
Can Burnes work ethic overcome these challenges?
Regression may not occur in the traditional sense, but a full season is likely to unveil a few warts.
Can Burnes work ethic overcome these challenges?
Yes & No.
Burnes now has an entire offseason to further master his arsenal
But control is likely to remain suspect w/ his HR/FB likely normalizing somewhat.
His IP, according to MIL, is also likely to be capped around 160ish
Cy Young? Maybe not 2021.
Star? I would say so
Burnes now has an entire offseason to further master his arsenal
But control is likely to remain suspect w/ his HR/FB likely normalizing somewhat.
His IP, according to MIL, is also likely to be capped around 160ish
Cy Young? Maybe not 2021.
Star? I would say so
I would bet on Burnes to do the work this offseason & reinforce holes before there is an issue.
That being said, I do not expect a 2.11 ERA.
Keep expectations in check, but he could be worth a gamble at 55.70 overall (NFBC DC 1/13) as the SP19.
High risk. High reward.
That being said, I do not expect a 2.11 ERA.
Keep expectations in check, but he could be worth a gamble at 55.70 overall (NFBC DC 1/13) as the SP19.
High risk. High reward.
What to expect from Corbin Burnes in 2021:
160 IP
3.38 ERA
1.24 WHIP
30.0% K Rate
8.9% BB Rate
Worth ethic is my tie breaker when it comes to projecting Burnes.
His new pitch mix could become more lethal over the offseason, just expect a few bumps in the road in 2021.
160 IP
3.38 ERA
1.24 WHIP
30.0% K Rate
8.9% BB Rate
Worth ethic is my tie breaker when it comes to projecting Burnes.
His new pitch mix could become more lethal over the offseason, just expect a few bumps in the road in 2021.
@ReviewngTheBrew @BREW_MATHs @Brewers @BrewCrewBall @Haudricourt @AdamMcCalvy @Todd_Rosiak
There is an entire thread on Corbin Burnes above, but here is a link to the beginning: https://twitter.com/MattWi77iams/status/1349691989873340416
There is an entire thread on Corbin Burnes above, but here is a link to the beginning: https://twitter.com/MattWi77iams/status/1349691989873340416
