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No hate towards @valueterminal, but I low-key hate this article. Will shoot a few holes below while watching Always Sunny and sipping some whiskey... https://twitter.com/valueterminal/status/1350570772994121732
The construct of the Ubermensch analyst picking you off is false. For starters - time / attention of the average analyst. Rarely is there ever an analyst spending 100% of their time on a situation (only know of PS and $HLF, and Enron/Lehman)
Secondly, even if there was an analyst singularly focused on a company/situation, you don't know what their timeline is. I can think of countless examples of the smartest guy I've met on a situation losing some money at first due to timing of entry but having a longer-term thesis
Also, they can easily confirmation bias themselves to death. I've seen that quite a few times as well.
Beyond that, there are so many non-fundamental reasons reasons why investors buy a security. Closet-indexing, riding a trend, poorly thought out pair trades, rebalancing, I could go on.
What does the research of an institutional-level analyst really look like? Speaking from credit background, covering 10-15 names in the portfolio. Sprint through initial research, but after that it's mostly maintenance research and checking off questions I want answered
Just spitballing, but let's say I worked 12 hour days, spent 90% of my time for two weeks ramping up on a new company. That's 100 hours of work (and that's unrealistic off the top of my head)
Yeah I have a ton of advantages - expert network calls, sellside calls, IR, corporate access if I'm really lucky...but I'm also probably worrying about shit you as a personal investor don't need to worry about - earnings cadence, short-term fluctuations
I know he's taken a big L this past year, but I love Burry.
"I have always believed that a single talented analyst, working very hard, can cover an amazing amount of investment landscape, and this belief remains unchallenged in my mind.”
I truly believe that
"I have always believed that a single talented analyst, working very hard, can cover an amazing amount of investment landscape, and this belief remains unchallenged in my mind.”
I truly believe that
I have more thoughts on this article, but I care less about dunking on it atm than I did 10 minutes ago.
Unlike Dennis, my rage has plenty of bounds.
Unlike Dennis, my rage has plenty of bounds.
