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Values on today's three-team deal:
#Padres: RHP Joe Musgrove ($36.2M)
#Pirates: OF Hudson Head ($6.3M), C Endy Rodriguez ($2.4M), LHP Omar Cruz ($0.7M) and RHPs David Bednar ($0.3M) and Drake Fellows ($0.1M)
#Mets: LHP Joey Lucchesi ($5.8M)
Deal is NOT accepted by our model.
#Padres: RHP Joe Musgrove ($36.2M)
#Pirates: OF Hudson Head ($6.3M), C Endy Rodriguez ($2.4M), LHP Omar Cruz ($0.7M) and RHPs David Bednar ($0.3M) and Drake Fellows ($0.1M)
#Mets: LHP Joey Lucchesi ($5.8M)
Deal is NOT accepted by our model.
For the #Mets, the Lucchesi-Rodriguez swap is within the parameters of the model.
But the #Pirates return ($9.8M total) for Musgrove ($36.2M) is egregiously low. We double-checked Musgrove's value and don't see anything out of line - it looks like PIT just got a poor return.
But the #Pirates return ($9.8M total) for Musgrove ($36.2M) is egregiously low. We double-checked Musgrove's value and don't see anything out of line - it looks like PIT just got a poor return.
Head has some helium, but not enough to bridge the gap. Musgrove is affordable and in his prime, projected for ~3.0 WAR by both Steamer and ZiPS.
Worth noting that over the last couple years, when a trade wasn't accepted by our model, Preller and the #Padres were often involved.
Worth noting that over the last couple years, when a trade wasn't accepted by our model, Preller and the #Padres were often involved.
Additionally, maybe teams like the Angels weren't budging on high-value players like Brandon Marsh, so the Pirates just settled for whatever they could get.
It's certainly possible they didn't want to hold onto Musgrove too long like they did with Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, others
It's certainly possible they didn't want to hold onto Musgrove too long like they did with Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, others
