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1. Been thinking a lot about the famous doomsday cult experiments in social psychology. No particular reason, but come along for the ride. A short thread.
2. So, in the mid 1950's (as a march toward legal integration was just tipping the scales, coincidentally), a woman named Dorothy Martin became part of a group of true believers in a cult.
3. Why do I call it a cult? Because they were convinced that aliens from the planet Clarion were planning to destroy Lake City near Chicago with a flood on December 21, 1954. True story.
4. This sparked the interest of a group of social psychologists interested in what people would do when their beliefs—especially about themselves—and information from the real world did not line up. They were inventing the psychological theory known as cognitive dissonance.
5. Having read about this cult in the paper, they realized they had the opportunity to observe what people who collectively held a wildly improbably belief would do in the context of almost certain disconfirmation.
6. Would they realize it was all a sham? Fall into a panic? Question deeply who they were? GO TO A DENNY'S ON PURPOSE??? The wild possibilities boggled the mind.
7. But the psychologists had a different hypothesis. They guessed that the cult would STRENGTHEN their beliefs when the world didn't end. Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schacter believed that, rather than ponder their own lunacy, folks would rather double down.
8. The hypothesis was based on a fair number of laboratory experiments by that point, but no way to be a famous psychologists without a field experiment. So they set off to infiltrate Ms. Martin's friendly cult to see if the theory worked in the world.
9. They observed them all gathered together on the night the great flood was scheduled to wipe everyone out. There was chanting, and singing, and silence, and worship. And waiting. Lots and lots of waiting.
10. Also, there was more waiting.
Because, shocking everyone reading this in 2021, no flood came to wipe out Lake City, or even make large puddles that night.
Because, shocking everyone reading this in 2021, no flood came to wipe out Lake City, or even make large puddles that night.
11. As it dawned on everyone that their homes would remain dry, a predictable ritual began. The cultists began experimenting with rationales for why UFOs had spared them this time...but were still super real.
12. What the psychologists believed was necessary was that:
A. The cultists were authentically dedicated to the ideas of the cult.
B. The cultists had sacrificed to be part of the cult. And
C. The cultists were amongst other true believers—and no one else.
A. The cultists were authentically dedicated to the ideas of the cult.
B. The cultists had sacrificed to be part of the cult. And
C. The cultists were amongst other true believers—and no one else.
13. And, just as predicted, the next day, and for years thereafter, a number of folks from the Doomsday cult believed even more fervently that they had before!
14. Not at all sure what brought this to mind today, but if there were a group of folks who were led to believe that, let's say, a free and fair election were actually a fraud by lizard people who rape and eat babies, but that Jesus would strike them down, maybe it's relevant.
15. Because there's no way to believe patently absurd things without a CLOSED echo chamber. Just one dissenting voice as part of the in-group and the illusion shatters.
16. This is why penalties among cultists for voicing dissent are so severe and why the boundaries around membership are so strong.
17. It is ALSO why in-group members must be held accountable for spreading disinformation. Because, but for their inability to speak the obvious truth, the cult could not exist.
18. Thinking maybe we should remember that the next time someone pleads innocence while remaining silent in the midst of a global disinformation crisis. But, again, no reason why that came to mind the night before inauguration.
19. Sleep well, everyone. Forecast calls for sunny skies and zero city-destroying floods tomorrow.
PS. Yes, I understand that, methodologically, these were not experiments. But there is no edit button, so hush.
