Read on Twitter
Very glad to have been interviewed about vaccine passports by Belgian newspaper @lalibrebe
Basic argument is that policymakers should put in place a system of vaccine passports - essentially enabling firms to verify whether their customers have been vaccinated.
Short thread
https://twitter.com/pabloment/status/1352601108674469889
Basic argument is that policymakers should put in place a system of vaccine passports - essentially enabling firms to verify whether their customers have been vaccinated.
Short thread
https://twitter.com/pabloment/status/1352601108674469889
Assumptions:
1) World is facing an unprecedented crisis
2) The sooner we reach critical mass of vaccinations, the sooner we can go back to "normal"
3) Covid (& vaccine) entails HUGE externalities and information asymmetries => as things stand, Coasian bargaining likely impossible
1) World is facing an unprecedented crisis
2) The sooner we reach critical mass of vaccinations, the sooner we can go back to "normal"
3) Covid (& vaccine) entails HUGE externalities and information asymmetries => as things stand, Coasian bargaining likely impossible
Two easy policy responses (1) do nothing or (2) force people to get vaccinated.
Both are problematic.
2) Will lead to severe pushback against vaccination in general
1) Rests on a specious notion of freedom: "people should choose for themselves". This ignores externalities:
Both are problematic.
2) Will lead to severe pushback against vaccination in general
1) Rests on a specious notion of freedom: "people should choose for themselves". This ignores externalities:
"Vaccine passport" offers middle ground that is consistent with individual liberty.
You CAN refuse vaccine, but other people can avoid you as a result. And some entities (movie theaters, airlines, etc) may refuse to serve you.
You CAN refuse vaccine, but other people can avoid you as a result. And some entities (movie theaters, airlines, etc) may refuse to serve you.
The passport effectively solves information asymmetry problem => reduces externality
Unvaccinated people will support some of the social costs they impose (in the form of denied access, mandatory testing, or physical separation).
This boosts incentive to get vaccinated.
Unvaccinated people will support some of the social costs they impose (in the form of denied access, mandatory testing, or physical separation).
This boosts incentive to get vaccinated.
Common pushback:
- This is premature; we are currently facing vaccine shortages.
Response:
- Yes, but at some point, the problem will shift from vaccine supply to vaccine acceptance. Let's prepare for that today.
- This is premature; we are currently facing vaccine shortages.
Response:
- Yes, but at some point, the problem will shift from vaccine supply to vaccine acceptance. Let's prepare for that today.
Pushback 2:
- We might reach critical mass without incentive schemes
Response:
- "Do nothing" gambles that enough will choose vaccine (fat tail if wrong).
- Vaccine passport is "anitfragile" @nntaleb. Very low cost, yet reduces probability of insufficient vaccination.
- We might reach critical mass without incentive schemes
Response:
- "Do nothing" gambles that enough will choose vaccine (fat tail if wrong).
- Vaccine passport is "anitfragile" @nntaleb. Very low cost, yet reduces probability of insufficient vaccination.
Finally, other incentive schemes have been put forward (and all of them cost pennies on the dollar). They could be just as effective.
For example, @s8mb and @MrRBourne have suggested that governments could pay people to be vaccinated: https://capx.co/arms-out-to-help-out-the-case-for-a-covid-vaccine-payment/
For example, @s8mb and @MrRBourne have suggested that governments could pay people to be vaccinated: https://capx.co/arms-out-to-help-out-the-case-for-a-covid-vaccine-payment/
