Thread by @JasonSalemi, A few updates/thoughts about #COVID19 #vaccines in #Florida Emphasis on current phase [...]

A few updates/thoughts about #COVID19 #vaccines in #Florida

Emphasis on current phase in our state that is targeting people 65+

A catch-up

1/15

We're now over 1.4 million people vaccinated, almost 8% of the vaccine-eligible population (16+ years).

Almost 158,000 have received both doses (0.9% of vaccine-eligible population)

There is big variation in vaccination rates by county, but WHY?

2/15

Well, the primary determinant of different vaccination rates by county is:
(1) counties have diff population age distributions
(2) since the most impactful phase (in terms of volume) thus far is the focus on those 65+ years

We have vaccinated >21% of 65+ statewide.

3/15

When we look at statewide trends over time, by age group, we can see when the 65+ phase kicked in

4/15

When we look at statewide trends over time, by age group, we can see when the 65+ phase kicked in 4/15

But, when we take today's # (based on data as of yesterday), & sort counties by the % of the 65+ pop they have vaccinated, there is big variation, from 8.8% to 44.3%.

I know population estimates don't account for snowbirds, but that's not driving these diffs.

Again, why?

5/15

Well, some things make perfect sense, like:

The more people a county has that is 65+ years, the more people in that age group that will be vaccinated (strong positive correlation)

Both axes are on log (base 2) scale due to skewed pop data across counties...

6/15

It also makes sense that counties with a higher % of their population that is 65+ will have a higher % of its vaccinated people who are 65+.

7/15

BUT, we see that counties with more people 65+ who need to be vaccinated (bigger populations) have proportionately fewer people 65+ who end up getting vaccinated.

But a county should get more doses if their populations are bigger (which they do)

8/15

But is a county's dose allocation by the state dictated by:
(1) their overall population size (all ages)
(2) their population of vaccine-eligible people (16+)
(3) their population of 65+ since most doses will go there

???

9/15

It's important because there seems to be a strong inverse (negative) correlation between the % of a county's population that is 65+ and the vaccination rate in those 65+

In general, higher % of 65+ pop, lower % of people 65+ who have currently received 1+ doses.

10/15

I thought this might be impacted by counties with large nursing home staff and frontline healthcare workers since they were part of the first phase and would have included many people <65 who "consumed" allocated doses (not as much left for the 65+ phase)...

11/15

But, O do not see a strong county-level correlation between the % of the 16-64 population who is vaccinated and the % of the 65+ population who is vaccinated.

If the previous tweet were true, I might have expected a slight inverse association.

12/15

I don't have (or haven't taken the time to track down) population estimates for healthcare workers by county or I would've compared that to 65+ vaccination rates (instead of % of the entire 16-64 population vaccinated).

13/15

Clearly, right now, everyone in these counties is trying to get as many doses in the arms of people 65+

But whether these county-level diffs in 65+ vaccination rates are due to distribution issues, logistics, vaccine hesitancy, reporting delays, etc., etc., I do not know.

14/15

Last, I oddly still feel like crud, but tomorrow's a new day. I can't remember the last time I felt this bad for this long (obviously been blessed with excellent health).

Yes, I did get a COVID PCR test (my wife, too).

Both negative.

15/end

Latest Threads Unrolled: