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Sweden:
1)estimates of % infected: spring wave, winter wave (till peak)
2)estimated IFR
1)estimates of % infected: spring wave, winter wave (till peak)
2)estimated IFR
Used an excellent post (Dr. Sebastian Rushworth) about serology
Ab frequency stabilized at 10% after spring wave
Ab frequency 40% at week 2
The latter correspond to the peak ~2 weeks earlier https://sebastianrushworth.com/2021/01/25/heres-a-graph-they-dont-want-you-to-see/
Ab frequency stabilized at 10% after spring wave
Ab frequency 40% at week 2
The latter correspond to the peak ~2 weeks earlier https://sebastianrushworth.com/2021/01/25/heres-a-graph-they-dont-want-you-to-see/
Stable Ab level allow estimation of % infected (spring wave).
Methodology here https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1305215126379917314
Methodology here https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1305215126379917314
Estimates greatly depend on % of asymptomatic infection.
I allowed it to be 90% or 50%
By the summer 20%-40% of the population was infected
IFR: 0.14% - 0.28%
I allowed it to be 90% or 50%
By the summer 20%-40% of the population was infected
IFR: 0.14% - 0.28%
Peak spring wave reached when <15% was infected.
Peak winter wave reached when additional 30% was infected.
Overall, roughly 60% (range 50%-70%) was infected by the recent winter wave peak.
Peak winter wave reached when additional 30% was infected.
Overall, roughly 60% (range 50%-70%) was infected by the recent winter wave peak.
Pre-existing immunity (partial) would be included in the total.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/09/17/stop-continued-self-destruction-test-covid-immunity/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/09/17/stop-continued-self-destruction-test-covid-immunity/
