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The Anatomy of a Top-24 Dynasty Wide Receiver:
Ty Hill
Adams
DK
Jefferson
Nuk
AJ Brown
Diggs
MT
CeeDee
Ridley
F1
Godwin
Keenan Allen
A Rob
DJ Moore
M Evans
Amari
Golladay
Tee Higgins
R Woods
JuJu
D Johnson
Sutton
DJ Chark
Using these players in the data set, let’s take a look!!
Ty Hill
Adams
DK
Jefferson
Nuk
AJ Brown
Diggs
MT
CeeDee
Ridley
F1
Godwin
Keenan Allen
A Rob
DJ Moore
M Evans
Amari
Golladay
Tee Higgins
R Woods
JuJu
D Johnson
Sutton
DJ Chark
Using these players in the data set, let’s take a look!!
Draft Capital:
It seems simple, but don’t overthink it. Good players get drafted early.
Players drafted in:
Rd 1 - 7
Rd 2 - 10
Rd 3 - 5
Rd 4 or later - 2
Ty Hill and Diggs (injured) are the only non-day 1 or 2 players.
It seems simple, but don’t overthink it. Good players get drafted early.
Players drafted in:
Rd 1 - 7
Rd 2 - 10
Rd 3 - 5
Rd 4 or later - 2
Ty Hill and Diggs (injured) are the only non-day 1 or 2 players.
Breakout Age:
18 - 8
19 - 9
20 - 4
21+ - 3
Age adjusted college dominance is key.
21+ is Ty Hill (again) and Terry McLaurin and Michael Thomas.
18 - 8
19 - 9
20 - 4
21+ - 3
Age adjusted college dominance is key.
21+ is Ty Hill (again) and Terry McLaurin and Michael Thomas.
College Dominator:
Over 50% - 1 (DJ Moore)
40%-50% - 4
30%-40% - 16
Less 30% - 3
Outliers under 30% - Ty Hill (you’ll see a theme - he’s an outlier) DJ Chark & Terry McLaurin.
Over 50% - 1 (DJ Moore)
40%-50% - 4
30%-40% - 16
Less 30% - 3
Outliers under 30% - Ty Hill (you’ll see a theme - he’s an outlier) DJ Chark & Terry McLaurin.
Height:
6’2” more - 10
6’0” or 6’1” - 12
5’10” 5’11” - 2
5’9” less - 0
I’m not saying you can’t be short, but size matters in the NFL.
The outliers - Diontae Johnson and - you guessed it - Tyreek Hill.
6’2” more - 10
6’0” or 6’1” - 12
5’10” 5’11” - 2
5’9” less - 0
I’m not saying you can’t be short, but size matters in the NFL.
The outliers - Diontae Johnson and - you guessed it - Tyreek Hill.
BMI:
30+ - 1 (thicc AJ Brown)
28 29 - 7
26 27 - 13
25 less - 3
Calvin Ridley (6’1” 189) and DJ Chark (6’3” 199) are the lowest on this scale.
We have a few prospects in 2021 that will be testing this measure, namely Devonta Smith.
30+ - 1 (thicc AJ Brown)
28 29 - 7
26 27 - 13
25 less - 3
Calvin Ridley (6’1” 189) and DJ Chark (6’3” 199) are the lowest on this scale.
We have a few prospects in 2021 that will be testing this measure, namely Devonta Smith.
40 Time and Speed Score:
4.40 less - 4
4.40-4.50 - 7
4.50-4.60 -12
4.60 + - 1
Speed score:
116 + - 1 (DK 133
)
105-115 - 8
95-105 - 13
95 less - 2
Speed matters - but only as a threshold.
The only player in the bottom categories here is the legendary Keenan Allen (4.71)
4.40 less - 4
4.40-4.50 - 7
4.50-4.60 -12
4.60 + - 1
Speed score:
116 + - 1 (DK 133
)105-115 - 8
95-105 - 13
95 less - 2
Speed matters - but only as a threshold.
The only player in the bottom categories here is the legendary Keenan Allen (4.71)
College Sophomore season ~ receiving yards:
1100+ yards - 9
800-1100 - 6
500 - 800 - 5
Less 500 - 4
This one is huge - the outliers Ty Hill, DJ Chark, McLaurin and Golladay.
Even including F1, these players averaged 978 receiving yards as Sophomores.
Wow!!
1100+ yards - 9
800-1100 - 6
500 - 800 - 5
Less 500 - 4
This one is huge - the outliers Ty Hill, DJ Chark, McLaurin and Golladay.
Even including F1, these players averaged 978 receiving yards as Sophomores.
Wow!!
So - In review - here is what an elite dynasty WR looks like:
* Drafted on Day 1 or 2
* BOA 18 or 19
* College Dominator 30% +
* 4.59 40 time or better (95+ speed score)
* 6’0” or taller
* BMI over 25
* Sophomore season production
@TheUndroppables
@TheUndraftedFF
* Drafted on Day 1 or 2
* BOA 18 or 19
* College Dominator 30% +
* 4.59 40 time or better (95+ speed score)
* 6’0” or taller
* BMI over 25
* Sophomore season production
@TheUndroppables
@TheUndraftedFF
Oh. And here is last year’s list for context. https://twitter.com/dynogametheory/status/1228753364789235712
Oh. And one more big one.
Early Declare:
Yes - 21
No - 3
Most of these guys left school early. Why? Cuz they’re Awesome at Football.
Early Declare:
Yes - 21
No - 3
Most of these guys left school early. Why? Cuz they’re Awesome at Football.
