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George Osbourne has argued that Starmer is doing a lot worse in the polls than Cameron was. While this is true, I don't think it's a particularly fair comparison.
Cameron inherited a party that was neck-and-neck with Labour.
Starmer inherited a party that was miles behind.
Cameron inherited a party that was neck-and-neck with Labour.
Starmer inherited a party that was miles behind.
(With credit to @markpack for the excellent database data. Polling only goes up to Christmas)
To be honest, I am also not convinced it is the point.
If you took the polls almost a year into Cameron's term and almost a year into Starmer's, you would draw the conclusion that we have two leaders who are popular enough with the public at this stage to win an election.
If you took the polls almost a year into Cameron's term and almost a year into Starmer's, you would draw the conclusion that we have two leaders who are popular enough with the public at this stage to win an election.
What will ultimately decide the next election is if Starmer can tell a story about what the biggest problem facing the country is, and how he and the Labour party are best placed to fix it.
In the same way Cameron did coming out of the financial crash.
In the same way Cameron did coming out of the financial crash.
I also think his theory on what Labour should do ("say more") is quite fair.
If we use Cameron's leadership as a case study - at this stage he was saying hug a hoodie and taking trips to the arctic...
If we use Cameron's leadership as a case study - at this stage he was saying hug a hoodie and taking trips to the arctic...
During the financial crisis, they were as all other the places (if not more) than Labour have been over the past year.
Here is Cameron saying that nationalising Northern Rock would be a “monumental failure” for Government. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2007/12/cameron-nationa.html
Here is Cameron saying that nationalising Northern Rock would be a “monumental failure” for Government. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2007/12/cameron-nationa.html
But they came out of it with the best story about the biggest problem the country faced (too high debt and deficit), why Labour was to blame for that (pissing away money) and why they were best placed to solve it (The Tories can handle public spending.
So basically, I actually think that Starmer has *loads* to learn from what Cameron and Osbourne did, and it is a good case study of how to win coming out of a crisis.
But Osbourne seems to have basically forgotten how they actually won.
But Osbourne seems to have basically forgotten how they actually won.
Having said all this, I would still be a bit scared about how much Starmer's numbers have dropped over the past few months if I were the Labour Party.
Apologies for all of the awful typos in this...
