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Transfer Trends: GW21 thread
Welcome to Transfer Trends, with snippets from my article focused on an interesting transfer combination each GW #GW21 #FPL #FPLCommunity
RT/
Welcome
Data + full article re: Bamford > Calvert-Lewin transfers
@FFH_HQ: https://fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fpl-gw21-best-transfer-tips
Welcome to Transfer Trends, with snippets from my article focused on an interesting transfer combination each GW #GW21 #FPL #FPLCommunity
RT/ WelcomeData + full article re: Bamford > Calvert-Lewin transfers
@FFH_HQ: https://fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fpl-gw21-best-transfer-tips
This week the three topmost transferred out players are all forwards:
Kane (£11.3m) > 402k sales
Bamford (£6.7m) > 181k sales
Vardy (£10m) > 165k sales
The most popular replacements have been:
Calvert-Lewin (£7.6m)> 294k buys
Watkins (£6.2m) > 145k buys
Kane (£11.3m) > 402k sales
Bamford (£6.7m) > 181k sales
Vardy (£10m) > 165k sales
The most popular replacements have been:
Calvert-Lewin (£7.6m)> 294k buys
Watkins (£6.2m) > 145k buys
This week’s article is going to look at Calvert-Lewin as a Bamford replacement. This combination accounts for 36% of all Bamford sales this Gameweek.
*Fixture Tickers for GW21-26 at the end of the thread!
*Fixture Tickers for GW21-26 at the end of the thread!
Calvert-Lewin vs Bamford analysis
Calvert-Lewin - EVE
Fixtures: NEW (H), LEE (a), MUN (a) + FUL (H)
Ownership: 31%
Transfers in: 417k
DCL is already on 11 goals + 4 assists. EVE have been missing their key creative players in recent weeks and as such DCL's output has declined.
Calvert-Lewin - EVE
Fixtures: NEW (H), LEE (a), MUN (a) + FUL (H)
Ownership: 31%
Transfers in: 417k
DCL is already on 11 goals + 4 assists. EVE have been missing their key creative players in recent weeks and as such DCL's output has declined.
Not scored a goal in the last 7!
Underlying stats this season:
1,496 mins (17 appearances/ 17 starts)
80 touches in the penalty box
47 shots (25 on target)
41 shots inside the box
17 big chances
8 chances created (0 big chances created)
11 goals (9.63 xG)
4 assists (2.06 xA)
Underlying stats this season:
1,496 mins (17 appearances/ 17 starts)
80 touches in the penalty box
47 shots (25 on target)
41 shots inside the box
17 big chances
8 chances created (0 big chances created)
11 goals (9.63 xG)
4 assists (2.06 xA)
Rodriguez + Digne, have both been a big loss for Everton’s creativity. The full supporting cast is now back to create chances for DCL to return to his goalscoring ways of the early season. I expect their recent dire creative stats to get back on track now...
...their GW21 opponent, NEW, has lost 7/9 PL games whilst conceding 18 goals. In terms of Big Chances Conceded, NEW rank 19th on average. Their average xG conceded ranks them at 16th (1.75). It does not look like Bruce plans on changing his 4-4-2 formation to defend better.
The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 4.9 points for Calvert-Lewin in Gameweek 21 (1st across forwards). He also ranks 4th for PP between Gameweek 21-24 with 16.8 points.
Transfer rating: DCL is not only nailed on to start all games but he is also the focal point of the team..
Transfer rating: DCL is not only nailed on to start all games but he is also the focal point of the team..
... EVE face 3 of the worst defences in the PL, in their next 4 matches. My biggest concern is that DCL's underlying attacking numbers have dipped lately but that is with the caveat of the supporting cast being injured. This should improve with the return of Digne & Rodriguez.
I believe EVE are about to hit some serious form and I’d like to get one of the first tickets on the train! Considering that many are bringing him in for Bamford, it is only fair that we move onto analysing Bamford in the short and long-term too.
Bamford (£6.7m) – LEE
Fixtures: LEI (a), EVE (H), CRY (H), ARS (a)
Ownership: 48%
Transfers out: 212k
Leeds finally got back to winning ways last week after two losses in a row. Bamford has blanked in his last 3 matches though. Over the full season though, Bamford has been...
Fixtures: LEI (a), EVE (H), CRY (H), ARS (a)
Ownership: 48%
Transfers out: 212k
Leeds finally got back to winning ways last week after two losses in a row. Bamford has blanked in his last 3 matches though. Over the full season though, Bamford has been...
... right at the top for the majority of underlying attacking stats. He is 2nd for Shots, 1st for Shots on Target, 1st for Shots in the Box and 3rd for Big Chances. He was substituted early against Newcastle and should be ready and raring to go in GW21 vs Leicester.
Underlying stats this season:
1,609 mins (19 appearances / 19 starts)
97 touches in the penalty box
66 shots (28 on target)
58 shots inside the box
18 big chances
9 chances created (1 big chance created)
10 goals (10.69 xG)
5 assists (2.58 xA)
1,609 mins (19 appearances / 19 starts)
97 touches in the penalty box
66 shots (28 on target)
58 shots inside the box
18 big chances
9 chances created (1 big chance created)
10 goals (10.69 xG)
5 assists (2.58 xA)
LEE are also one of the few teams that could have a DGW26 + also have a fixture in BGW29. I personally would not write off LEE just yet. Many are worried their style of play has exhausted them and that they are going to fade away now...
... but with Bamford subbed off early in GW20 he should be ready to go against LEI. In fact, I expect both teams to score a few goals in this game as they are both very attacking sides. Although LEE have slowed down on their underlying attacking numbers recently, they are still..
... sitting in the top 5 for the majority of underlying attacking stats. Their 32 goals and 190 Shots in the Box are 4th in the PL.
The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 3.8 points for him in GW21 (10th across forwards). His projected points for GW21-24 is 16 points (8th).
The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 3.8 points for him in GW21 (10th across forwards). His projected points for GW21-24 is 16 points (8th).
Comparison of GW15-20
The picture painted by the last 6 GWs shows that Bamford is way ahead of DCL both in actual returns and underlying stats. IMO, the move from Bamford to DCL is coming due to FPL managers frustration with LEE decline in attacking numbers & Bamford’s early sub
The picture painted by the last 6 GWs shows that Bamford is way ahead of DCL both in actual returns and underlying stats. IMO, the move from Bamford to DCL is coming due to FPL managers frustration with LEE decline in attacking numbers & Bamford’s early sub
Over the course of the full season, DCL's underlying attacking numbers are on par with Bamford. It is immediately clear that the EVE striker has really struggled from a lack of service and this should now change. Digne + Rodriguez being back vs 3 of the worst defences in next 4!
Transfer rating:
Personally, I will not be selling Bamford yet. I expect him to get returns after the early substitution against NEW. I can totally understand why FPL managers are selling him, especially if they do not have any fires to put out in the rest of their squad...
Personally, I will not be selling Bamford yet. I expect him to get returns after the early substitution against NEW. I can totally understand why FPL managers are selling him, especially if they do not have any fires to put out in the rest of their squad...
...it is a tactical move to get ahead of the crowd. I intend on finding another way to get to DCL so I can give Bamford another chance.
If you are not hot on DCL, my favourite replacements are...
If you are not hot on DCL, my favourite replacements are...
...Ollie Watkins (£6.2m) and Michael Antonio (£6.4m).
Watkins has two Double Gameweeks and great fixtures coming up. Antonio is looking lethal and back to full fitness after some very impressive games for West Ham.
Watkins has two Double Gameweeks and great fixtures coming up. Antonio is looking lethal and back to full fitness after some very impressive games for West Ham.
Here is a view of the upcoming 6GWs with the Fixture Ticker for both attack & defence.
*Please note that High numbers are good for attack and bad for the defence in the next two photos. Also, note that without the Double Gameweek 26 fixtures the ticker is not gospel yet.
*Please note that High numbers are good for attack and bad for the defence in the next two photos. Also, note that without the Double Gameweek 26 fixtures the ticker is not gospel yet.
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Good luck in GW21 & don't forget the 11:00 GMT deadline tomorrow 30.01.21
Good luck in GW21 & don't forget the 11:00 GMT deadline tomorrow 30.01.21
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