Circling back to the UTH Projection Model-based comps for the 2020 running backs and 'where are we now' with prospects post-Year 1:
Jonathan Taylor: Historically elite comps
Cam Akers: Elite comps
JK Dobbins: Elite comps
D'Andre Swift: Strong comps, more boom-bust
CEH: Meh
AJ Dillon: Elite comps in the supersized genre
Antonio Gibson: Boom-bust but the boom has elite possibilities
James Robinson: High-floor reasonable outcome comps
Joshua Kelley: Meh
Ke'Shawn Vaughn: Meh minus
Zack Moss: High-floor but meh ceiling
Eno Benjamin: Quality high-to-middle ground comps but very low floor outcome comps
DeeJay Dallas: High-floor, low-ceiling
Darrynton Evans, High-floor, low-ceiling
Anthony McFarland: Big ceiling, but boom-bust floor
Interesting to see how the comps - independent of draft position - mostly mirrored what we saw in Year 1 (varying sample sizes of course)
Wide receiver is a bit more interesting as it's typically a slower-to-declare-itself position on who is good and not in the NFL. For example, we saw distinct 'look at THIS' flashes and games from Chase Claypool. Due to his low college production, his comps were/are not that great
Does Claypool buck the trend/outlook? Or is he an early flash guy where we look back at the dynasty valuation in the '21 offseason and think 'what were we (collective) thinking?'
Gabriel Davis? Quality pre-draft comp spectrum (especially on the higher end). Opportunity for a Day 3 guy certainly helps.
Jalen Reagor? Really high-floor comp spectrum. Even if you think he showed super poorly in Year 1 and it's all his fault for that, his valuation-projection for Y2+ should still be higher than the general consensus.
Justin Jefferson pretty much hit his best-case comp (Roddy White) YEARS in advance of White's trajectory as a rookie dynamo. White was a long-time FF producer even once Julio joined the depth chart. But was a Round 1 bust before that with his slow career start. JJ? Year 1 phenom
KJ Hamler? Strong comps and yet his flashes and early production surprised some/many even being a Round 2 pick. He was a pedigree-profile guy who slipped through the rookie draft cracks in too many drafts last offseason.
Laviska Shenault? Like Chase Claypool, not a great comp spectrum. Of course, Shenault is also a rarity with his size and general profile so sample size thins in that case - and pretty much is a unicorn in terms of distilling into a best case for comp purposes.
Michael Pittman? Pretty nice comps and he produced well in Year 1.
Tee Higgins? High ceiling + middle ground comps. Best case comp was Sidney Rice in my analysis. Might be considered bad outlook for some, but Rice's roadblock was durability-health in the NFL, not ability. Rice had one magical season (healthy) and was a WR1. Fleeting but big-time
Tyler Johnson was another with surprisingly good comps for being a Day 3 guy. When your middle ground comp was a guy who posted 5,000+ career receiving yards in the NFL, that's a quality profile for investment.
Denzel Mims was a boom-bust set of comps. We saw some of both in Year 1. Let's see how the Jets view him with their moves this offseason.
Brandon Aiyuk? Monster comps. Crazy high floor (ceiling too).
Bryan Edwards? I will just say, based on his prospect comps, do not write him off too soon (and post-Year 1 is too soon).
Henry Ruggs? Skepticism was warranted based on his comps. The Raiders really de-optimized that pick having the whole position at their disposal in Round 1.
Donovan Peoples-Jones? Hyper interesting based on his comp spectrum. The depth chart was blocked big time, but it turned unblocked by the end of Year 1 to see DPJ flash some. Promising.
Finally tight end....
Adam Trautman: High-floor, low-ceiling comps. Year 1? Seems like the case, we will see.
Albert Okwuegbunam: Crazy good comps. Year 1 - he instantly impacted the game when healthy. Then he gets hurt. Seems like he finds a way to be relevant regardless of DC
Devin Asiasi: Meh
Dalton Keene: Interesting
Harrison Bryant: High-floor, low-ceiling
Jacob Breeland: Interesting, course that durability...
Thaddeus Moss: Meh
Cole Kmet: High-floor at a minimum, high-ceiling possible
Brycen Hopkins: Don't forget about him, strong comps
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