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Gather UK application to join CPTPP is finally about to be announced, not that it was exactly a secret. Economic value limited given distance and existing UK deals, not a particularly strong or modern agreement in areas of UK strength like services, but...
CPTPP member countries like Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Singapore are likely to be the UK's new allies in trade policy terms, navigating the big 3 of US, EU, China, so in that sense pooling sovereignty in this different 'club' makes sense.
Two cautionary notes - there are question marks about the compatibility between UK law and existing CPTPP text in a few areas including food rules and technical standards (where text was US model), and we can't assume application = automatic membership.
One advantage hopefully - the fact the agreement is already written should allow proper scrutiny of UK interests against provisions. Because we expect changes or derogations for new members to be limited. That's preferable to keeping text secret until too late to discuss.
Expect to hear a lot more about the UK's Indo-Pacific strategy. But is still doesn't substitute for markets closer to home, particularly given regional integration of production. CPTPP opens few new doors to trade, but the politics is more interesting. We shall see.
Oh, final point. There haven't been CPTPP accessions before so we don't know the process or timescales. I am guessing a couple of years more likely than a couple of months, but we shall have to watch this space as they say.
Gut feeling is neither China or US will join CPTPP any time soon. South Korea or Thailand perhaps next from what I'd heard previously. https://twitter.com/irishagreement/status/1355641653944606720?s=20
Reckon @SophyRidgeSky should ask Liz Truss this tomorrow. Which bit of the Pacific should the UK move to...?
I said question marks, Sam says tentative take. Basically this is the big question. Because if there's no policy issues why not join CPTPP. But to be explored. Also, will new members have rights over others joining like existing members? https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1355643604459540480
Fact check: False. Sorry. Minimal economic benefits, given existing deals with so many, distance, low barriers in most, limited text. Now, if you wanted to use CPTPP as the basis for a new services plurilateral, then perhaps... https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1355647130371829762?s=20
Basically one possibility, trade policy to get as many deals as possible to get good headlines and get Liz Truss a promotion. Other, trade policy to benefit UK business, starting by lifting US whisky tariffs, reducing EU barriers, then focusing on services. The debate we need.
