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Robert Woods: 2021 Top-12 WR?
The first domino of the NFL QB carousel fell when the Rams & Lions agreed to swap their franchise quarterbacks. Now paired with Stafford, should Woods be treated as a WR1 in 2021 FF drafts?
1/ https://twitter.com/GridironExperts/status/1356300262059622400
Robert Woods: 2021 Top-12 WR?
The first domino of the NFL QB carousel fell when the Rams & Lions agreed to swap their franchise quarterbacks. Now paired with Stafford, should Woods be treated as a WR1 in 2021 FF drafts?
1/ https://twitter.com/GridironExperts/status/1356300262059622400
Jared Goff’s struggles with deep passes have limited the Rams’ offense in recent seasons.
In 2019, Goff’s 4.9 Completed Air Yards Per Completion (CAY/Comp) was No. 31 among quarterbacks.
Only Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, and Ben Roethlisberger were worse
.
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In 2019, Goff’s 4.9 Completed Air Yards Per Completion (CAY/Comp) was No. 31 among quarterbacks.
Only Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, and Ben Roethlisberger were worse
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Jared Goff couldn't (wouldn't) throw deep the past two seasons.
Intended Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (IAY/PA)
2019: 7.7 (No. 22)
2020: 6.6 (No. 32)
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Intended Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (IAY/PA)
2019: 7.7 (No. 22)
2020: 6.6 (No. 32)
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Oh, hello Matthew Stafford!
CAY/Comp
2019: 8.6 (No. 2)
2020: 6.9 (No.6)
IAY/PA
2019: 10.6 (No. 1)
2020: 8.7 (No. 5)
It's worth noting that Stafford wasn't afraid to throw deep last season even with Golladay missing 11 games.
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CAY/Comp
2019: 8.6 (No. 2)
2020: 6.9 (No.6)
IAY/PA
2019: 10.6 (No. 1)
2020: 8.7 (No. 5)
It's worth noting that Stafford wasn't afraid to throw deep last season even with Golladay missing 11 games.
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Per @rotounderworld:
Deep Throws: Passes that travel 20+ yards in the air
Jared Goff
Deep Throw Attempts
2019: 54 (No. 22)
2020: 48 (No. 19)
Deep Throw Completion %
2019: 29.6% (No. 30) *With Brandin Cooks too!
2020: 27.1% (No. 32)
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Deep Throws: Passes that travel 20+ yards in the air
Jared Goff
Deep Throw Attempts
2019: 54 (No. 22)
2020: 48 (No. 19)
Deep Throw Completion %
2019: 29.6% (No. 30) *With Brandin Cooks too!
2020: 27.1% (No. 32)
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Matthew Stafford
Deep Throw Attempts
2019: 55 (No. 20) *8 games*
2020: 61 (No. 12)
Deep Throw Completion %
2019: 38.2% (No. 14)
2020: 42.6% (No. 14)
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Deep Throw Attempts
2019: 55 (No. 20) *8 games*
2020: 61 (No. 12)
Deep Throw Completion %
2019: 38.2% (No. 14)
2020: 42.6% (No. 14)
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Jared Goff lead the NFL in play-action passes in back-to-back seasons according to @pfref.
Play-Action Pass Yards Per Play-Action Pass Attempt
2019: 8.06
2020: 8.05
Matthew Stafford
Play-Action Pass Yards Per Play-Action Pass Attempt
2019: 9.08
2020: 9.13
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Play-Action Pass Yards Per Play-Action Pass Attempt
2019: 8.06
2020: 8.05
Matthew Stafford
Play-Action Pass Yards Per Play-Action Pass Attempt
2019: 9.08
2020: 9.13
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Robert Woods has finished as WR12 (15.5) and WR19 (15.2) in PPR scoring in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
During these two seasons, Woods has seen140 (No. 8) targets and 130 (No. 12) targets, respectively.
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During these two seasons, Woods has seen140 (No. 8) targets and 130 (No. 12) targets, respectively.
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Volume is key to fantasy football numbers. However, it’s unreasonable to expect more targets for Woods.
Opportunities CAN be found when we dive deeper into the numbers. Not all targets are equal!
Woods’ Catchable Target Rate
2019: 72.1% (No. 87)
2020: 74.6% (No. 69)
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Opportunities CAN be found when we dive deeper into the numbers. Not all targets are equal!
Woods’ Catchable Target Rate
2019: 72.1% (No. 87)
2020: 74.6% (No. 69)
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That means that Woods had 39 and 33 targets respectively that were deemed uncatchable.
On top of that, Woods has only dropped 6 of his 270 combined targets or 2.22%.
Woods’ True Catch Rate
(this factors out uncatchable targets)
2019 89.1% (No. 11)
2020: 92.8% (No. 12)
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On top of that, Woods has only dropped 6 of his 270 combined targets or 2.22%.
Woods’ True Catch Rate
(this factors out uncatchable targets)
2019 89.1% (No. 11)
2020: 92.8% (No. 12)
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During Stafford’s last two seasons in Detroit,
Catchable Target Rate
Kenny Golladay
2019: 74.1% (No. 71)
2020: 87.5% (5 games played)
Marvin Jones
2019: 82.6% (No. 19)
2020: 80% (No. 37)
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Catchable Target Rate
Kenny Golladay
2019: 74.1% (No. 71)
2020: 87.5% (5 games played)
Marvin Jones
2019: 82.6% (No. 19)
2020: 80% (No. 37)
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Golladay’s low 74.1% Catchable Target Rate can be explained by his NFL-leading 37 Deep Targets. Woods will not see that many Deep Targets. However, Marvin Jones’ 2019 season is worth a deeper look.
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2019
Marvin Jones
19 Deep Targets
12.6 YPR
8.5 YPT
1.40 Target Separation
82.6% Catchable Target Rate
14.9 fantasy points per game (No. 19)
Robert Woods
11 Deep Targets
12.6 YPR
8.1 YPT
1.31 Target Separation
72.1% Catchable Target Rate
15.5 fantasy points per game (No. 12)
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Marvin Jones
19 Deep Targets
12.6 YPR
8.5 YPT
1.40 Target Separation
82.6% Catchable Target Rate
14.9 fantasy points per game (No. 19)
Robert Woods
11 Deep Targets
12.6 YPR
8.1 YPT
1.31 Target Separation
72.1% Catchable Target Rate
15.5 fantasy points per game (No. 12)
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The similarity in YPR, YPT, and Target Separation is eerie. One difference between the two is YAC ability.
Over the past two years, 56 WRs have seen 50+ targets in 2019 AND 2020 (sorry 2020 rookies).
Only two have combined for over 1000 YAC:
2. Kupp (1032)
1. Woods (1047)
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Over the past two years, 56 WRs have seen 50+ targets in 2019 AND 2020 (sorry 2020 rookies).
Only two have combined for over 1000 YAC:
2. Kupp (1032)
1. Woods (1047)
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Woods’ YAC yardage was also efficient.
Among the 56 receivers,
2019: 4.0 YAC/target (No. 4)
2020: 3.7 YAC/target (No. 7)
The play-action passes certainly helped in the YAC stat and, as mentioned earlier, Stafford is better than Goff in play-action.
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Among the 56 receivers,
2019: 4.0 YAC/target (No. 4)
2020: 3.7 YAC/target (No. 7)
The play-action passes certainly helped in the YAC stat and, as mentioned earlier, Stafford is better than Goff in play-action.
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Marvin Jones’ 2019 season is a great starting place at looking at Woods’ 2021 fantasy projections.
Add:
-Woods larger target volume
-Woods’ reliable hands (True Catch Rate)
-Stafford’s accuracy (Catchable Target Rate)
-Woods’ YAC ability
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Add:
-Woods larger target volume
-Woods’ reliable hands (True Catch Rate)
-Stafford’s accuracy (Catchable Target Rate)
-Woods’ YAC ability
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Woods may not play the same deep-threat role that Golladay played for Stafford in recent seasons. However, with his catching ability and YAC skills, paired with Stafford as a quarterback upgrade, I’m confident that Stafford can help Woods achieve a top-12 WR season in 2021.
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@jlarkytweets @BrandonSysak @BRotoFFCasanova @jtong622 @CarpentierNFL @FF_Alex_R @martin_dustinc
What do you guys think? Are you a believer in the Stafford-Woods pairing too?
What do you guys think? Are you a believer in the Stafford-Woods pairing too?
