Did you catch my '21 Outlook? This yr, I’m taking a different approach. Sure, the base case is the same as everyone else's: first half bad, second half good. Some inflationary pressure, mostly transitory. Services lag then catch up. But here's what REALLY keeps me up at night⬇️
#MacroDisruptor 1: Shifting roles of central banks (CBs) & govt policy. This is not your father's Fed. CBs are now the main holders of global govt debt, the line btwn monetary policy and fiscal policy is getting blurry. CBs are looking at inequality, climate change, housing...
#MacroDisruptor 2 –The Rise of Alternatives --> super low rates, massive central bank printing + fears associated w/ ⬆️ govt deficits will push investors to think outside the box, from infrastructure to private to crypto. They aren't going away - they will get louder.
#MacroDisruptor 3 - Traditional economic data is going to get phased out for more high frequency, robust and timely data. COVID showed us how stale/distorted our "regular" data can be. Plus, the focus on GDP and CPI will prob shift towards broader measures of growth and inflation
#MacroDisruptor 5 - ESG goes country-level. The thirst for ESG is surging and will only get louder. This isn't just about individual companies anymore, it's about country-screens, the pressure this will put on governments to fast track green spending and new green bond issuance
#MacroDisruptor 7 - Another Populist Wave. I thought this would take the whole year to materialize but we are already seeing the growing demands for redistributive policy, for the correction of imbalances, for populist candidates globally. Mkts need to watch this space.
You can follow @francesdonald.
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