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The "end the war" discourse is problematic. The war won't end by halting arms sales to Saudis although that would help. The Biden admin need to understand that #Yemen war is much more complex & won't be resolved through a political settlement between Houthis & Hadi govt. 1/5 https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1357424207999737871
Such political settlement excludes most Yemeni groups. It also risks tipping military balance in favor of Houthis who so far exploited every ceasefire to regroup & expand militarily much like they did following the Stockholm agreement that was brokered by UN Envoy in Dec 2018.2/5
A political settlement under current conditions will be a quick win for western diplomacy. But it will reinforce the power dynamics that gave rise to the conflict, empower war criminals at the expense of Yemenis,& undermine opportunities to build genuine & sustainable peace. 3/5
The Current UN peace process is deeply flawed. That is why it didn't work. Biden Admin should not be tempted to support it unconditionally to demonstrate US commitment to end the war in Yemen. US can use its leverage to reform the process & influence parties involved.4/5
For any political settlement to work: 1) Houthis need to demonstrate a commitment to peace by withdrawing from areas they captured at least since December 2018; & 2) Negotiations need to expand to represent other Yemeni actors. 5/5
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