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Since it's *always* fun and entertaining to talk about everyone's favourite starfish ... let's do a little deconstruction of Kris Russell's numbers this season.
If you're not interested in the numbers, no problem, tune out, I assume you follow me for my
Since it's *always* fun and entertaining to talk about everyone's favourite starfish ... let's do a little deconstruction of Kris Russell's numbers this season.
If you're not interested in the numbers, no problem, tune out, I assume you follow me for my
tremendous Dad joke game :-)
So the fun thing about Russell is that the favourite stat used to criticize him is indeed ... wait for it ... Corsi! It's consistently the case that the Oilers are out-shot-attempted, sometimes badly, when he's on the ice.
And that's not a
So the fun thing about Russell is that the favourite stat used to criticize him is indeed ... wait for it ... Corsi! It's consistently the case that the Oilers are out-shot-attempted, sometimes badly, when he's on the ice.
And that's not a
difficult thing to diagnose (stats will tell you *what* happened, but you have to use your eyes and brains to figure out *why* it happened).
He's very conservative on zone entries (so attackers enter the zone easily on his side) and his zone exits are off the glass and out, so
He's very conservative on zone entries (so attackers enter the zone easily on his side) and his zone exits are off the glass and out, so
the other team gathers up the puck, walks back in, and it's a shooting gallery. Fun!
That's also why he has to block so many shots, and it's not a good thing when you're the cause of all the shots that have to be blocked.
That said, as always, one stat will never tell the
That's also why he has to block so many shots, and it's not a good thing when you're the cause of all the shots that have to be blocked.
That said, as always, one stat will never tell the
entire tale. The things that people admire about Krussell, his skating, his willingness to protect-at-all-costs the danger zone in front of the net, do have an effect.
Over his Oilers career, Krusty's CF% has always been poor.
But his xGF%, which accounts for shot locations,
Over his Oilers career, Krusty's CF% has always been poor.
But his xGF%, which accounts for shot locations,
has almost always been *better* than that, which tells you he's having some success defending e.g. the slot.
And even better than that is his GF%, the smallest sample, most volatile, but also most important and coach-friendly stat of them all.
His GF% is very close to
And even better than that is his GF%, the smallest sample, most volatile, but also most important and coach-friendly stat of them all.
His GF% is very close to
breakeven before this season, and that's quite an achievement on the Oilers (for specifics, 5v5 Krussell's CF% 46.2, xGF% 47.8, GF% 49.4, NST).
This season on the other hand, Krusty's one asset, that ability to defend the danger zone is basically gone.
It's still a shooting
This season on the other hand, Krusty's one asset, that ability to defend the danger zone is basically gone.
It's still a shooting
gallery, but now way more dangerous. Even someone with a very modest understanding of the game will see this clearly, no stats needed.
But here *are* the stats this season: CF% 46.85 - better than his own average! xGF% - 41.7%, ulp, there's your shooting gallery. And most
But here *are* the stats this season: CF% 46.85 - better than his own average! xGF% - 41.7%, ulp, there's your shooting gallery. And most
damningly, GF% 16.7%.
Basically, it's a free pass to the net when Russell is out there now.
Hey, it's early season, things could change. This could just be a bit of a slump.
But let's face facts. The dude is a small hardnosed 33yo. Those guys age faster. More likely this is a
Basically, it's a free pass to the net when Russell is out there now.
Hey, it's early season, things could change. This could just be a bit of a slump.
But let's face facts. The dude is a small hardnosed 33yo. Those guys age faster. More likely this is a
permanent thing, not a slump. And in any case, why let him 'play his way out of it' when his ceiling is 3rd pair D to begin with?
Play the young players. Let them make mistakes and learn.
Enough with this ridiculous Oilers tradition of self-inflicted wounds.
/fin
Play the young players. Let them make mistakes and learn.
Enough with this ridiculous Oilers tradition of self-inflicted wounds.
/fin
