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EU Parliament approved the €672.5bn Recovery & Resilience Facility. Member states will sign on 12 February and expected to be published in Official Journal on 18 Feb. As from the following day, governments could submit their final version of recovery plans to access the funds
Commission is in talks w member states since Sept to prepare the recovery plans. Around 18 of them submitted complete drafts, 6 partial drafts & rest just political discussions. Commission told them to include more ambitious reforms in final versions & clear calendar/milestones
There’ll be 11 criteria to evaluate the plans & member states need to obtain at least 7 ‘A’, including 3/4 compulsory ones on issues such as spending control. Evaluation process will take up to 3 months (2 for Commission & 1 for member states).
If EU’s new budgetary ceiling (to borrow the 800bn (constant prices) is ratified by member states by late spring, that means governments could start receiving 13% of pre-financing when plan approved by end of semester (& there’ll be two annual revisions for disbursements)
*sorry I meant the €800bn is current prices (€750bn is constant prices).
In terms of narrative, summer could be a turning point for Europe, activity recovering, funds flowing to capitals & close to reaching herd immunity, although the 70% vaccination target seems too ambitious. Plus we know how easily narratives have crumbled in this pandemic
Spain (2nd largest beneficiary) is one of most advanced MS in drafting plans & Commission quite happy with @NadiaCalvino (still finalizing labour/pensions reforms w social partners). SP gov expected to submit plan by end Feb. Italy (largest beneficiary) has Draghi to the rescue
Next months/years will be messy, with high-voltage politics & detailed policy, milestones & targets reviewed by technocrats (EFC) to unlock money (remember troika days?).But at stake could be arguably one of largest collective transformations of European economies since early 90s
