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My guess is that #yields will keep pushing higher. If that happens without real rates moving up as well, then the market likely will absorb it in stride. But if real rates climb, too, the #Fed may have to step in to keep rates low. Some underlying data to consider: (1/THREAD)
While long rates are rising, the front end of the curve is falling. 2/
My bond model suggests that the 10-year #yield is right in the middle of its fair-value zone. A move to the upper band would suggest a 10-year of 1.9%. That’s in line with the copper/gold ratio. #bondmarket #bonds 3/
Meanwhile, the increase in debt levels, combined with potential for inflation, seems to be pushing up the term premium. 4/END
