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NFHS told me today they are not going to be releasing 2019-2020 participation data because it is not complete due to COVID. They added it will probably be hard for them to get completed data for 2020-2021 too.
That means we may not receive NFHS participation data until Fall 2022. And it comes at a concerning time (Covid aside). Before Covid, HS sports participation dropped nationally for the first time in 30+ years. It dropped in NC too.
In fact, NC high school sports participation began declining in the 2017-2018 school year. The drop in 2018-2019 was more noticeable in NC as participants dropped from 203,474 to 198,252. Both boys & girls participation dropped. That's the last year of data we have.
Which sports are declining in NC? Baseball, girls basketball, boys & girls cross country, football, boys golf, girls lacrosse, girls soccer, softball, boys & girls tennis, boys & girls indoor track, boys & girls outdoor track, volleyball, wrestling.
(2018-2019 data)
(2018-2019 data)
Girls basketball participation appears to be hardest hit based on data we've collected so far from ADs. That's subject to change when we get completed data.
Going into Covid though, NC girls basketball participation had dropped 12% in previous 5 years.
Going into Covid though, NC girls basketball participation had dropped 12% in previous 5 years.
Football participation appears to have also been hit very hard by Covid based on preliminary data we've collected. Again, subject to change with more data later.
Going into Covid, NC football participation had dropped by 25.6% (!!) from the previous five years.
Going into Covid, NC football participation had dropped by 25.6% (!!) from the previous five years.
The data we're collecting is pretty in-depth and I don't want to get too far ahead of it yet. However, something that has stood out, there is very little (if any) difference in participation decline at schools that had some in-person learning in 1st semester vs those that didn't.
I think that should be somewhat concerning as we move forward. As more schools/districts open to some form of in-person learning (and hopefully more normal for fall), we should not assume participation will rebound. There's no evidence of it yet.
Also concerning, JV (the future) appears to be hit harder than varsity.
So far, 22.5% of ADs report dropping at least one varsity sport this year due to lack of participation, but 62.8% report dropping at least one JV sport this year due to participation issues.
So far, 22.5% of ADs report dropping at least one varsity sport this year due to lack of participation, but 62.8% report dropping at least one JV sport this year due to participation issues.
I'll share our completed data next week. We are at about 31% response rate for NCHSAA schools. Hoping to get at least 50% next week, then we'll publish the data and a report on @highschoolot.
