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Time to cross the Florida-Georgia Line and tell the Real Turnout Story of Florida in 2020.
Florida swung 2.2% towards Donald Trump in 2020, the second highest pro-Trump swing of any state. They key story here is GOP turning out at or above expectations and Dems falling short, particularly among Blacks & Hispanics.
Turnout in raw votes was up 17.5% from 2018, but it was 98.5% of what was expected in our model. Registered Republicans outperformed registered Democrats by a decent margin.
GOP 100.8%
Dems 96.4%
Nonpartisan 97.9%
GOP 100.8%
Dems 96.4%
Nonpartisan 97.9%
Focusing on lower-propensity non-primary voters tells the story. Republicans outvoted Democrats here by 12 points. Dems were 6 points below non-partisan voters, typically the least engaged group.
GOP Non-Primary 102.0%
Dem Non-Primary 90.3%
Nonpartisan Non-Primary 96.2%
GOP Non-Primary 102.0%
Dem Non-Primary 90.3%
Nonpartisan Non-Primary 96.2%
As in Georgia, men outvoted women compared to expectations, a reversal of 2016. This was true among each party’s voters.
Men 99.3%
Women 97.8%
GOP Men 101.5%
Dem Men 96.7%
GOP Women 100.0%
Dem Women 96.2%
Men 99.3%
Women 97.8%
GOP Men 101.5%
Dem Men 96.7%
GOP Women 100.0%
Dem Women 96.2%
FL Latinos aren’t a monolith & many are Rs. There was a huge 7 point turnout gap between Hispanic Rs and Ds, double the rate among whites.
White R 101.2%
White D 98.4%
White I 100.2%
Hispanic R 99.6%
Hispanic D 92.9%
Hispanic I 94.4%
Black D 95.8%
Black R 90.7%
Black I 95.0%
White R 101.2%
White D 98.4%
White I 100.2%
Hispanic R 99.6%
Hispanic D 92.9%
Hispanic I 94.4%
Black D 95.8%
Black R 90.7%
Black I 95.0%
Of note, these Hispanic trends are not very different in Miami-Dade (primarily Cuban) than they are in Orange County (Orlando, primarily Puerto Rican), except Cuban turnout was higher.
Miami-Dade Hispanic
R 100.4%
D 93.6%
I 98.4%
Orange Co. Hispanic
R 96.7%
D 90.8%
I 89.4%
Miami-Dade Hispanic
R 100.4%
D 93.6%
I 98.4%
Orange Co. Hispanic
R 96.7%
D 90.8%
I 89.4%
Republicans’ Hispanic turnout advantage was especially pronounced among men, with an 8 point gap vs. 5 among women.
Hispanic Male GOP 100.7%
Hispanic Male Ds 92.3%
Hispanic Female GOP 98.7%
Hispanic Male GOP 93.3%
Hispanic Male GOP 100.7%
Hispanic Male Ds 92.3%
Hispanic Female GOP 98.7%
Hispanic Male GOP 93.3%
Unlike in Georgia, highly educated turnout didn’t swamp working class Rs. Both because there are fewer higher educated areas and Republicans remained the most motivated group across the educational spectrum.
White Republican turnout was strongest in rural areas and their advantage narrowed in suburbs. They maintained strong advantages across racial lines (except for the small number of Black Republicans) in low to moderate education precincts.
What about senior turnout, a big factor in Florida? Republicans outvoted Dems across all age groups but actually outperformed most in turnout with 30 somethings, while Millennial Dems didn’t show.
Clear gaps in turnout by age among Hispanics, narrower gaps among whites, with Republicans holding a bigger advantage with younger voters in both cases.
Republicans did better than Democrats on turnout in every county in the state.
If you were looking for Dem silver linings, you’d have to limit it to primary-voting Dems, who out voted GOPs slightly around Pensacola, Jacksonville, and Naples.
A precinct by precinct view of the turnout advantage looks quite dire for Dems, but with some pockets of overperformance in Broward, Orlando, Jacksonville, Gainesville.
