#Estimates

Jacob Mays

jacob_mays

As we root for everyone to make it through the extremely challenging conditions today, there's clearly a temptation in my feed to figure out what the last few days means

Spencer Fox

FoxandtheFlu

Remember the preprint that suggested that #covid19 herd immunity thresholds (HITs) were around 6-20% across Europe, and was part of the evidence used to justify the Great Barrington Declaration? @meyerslab

Luca Dellanna

DellAnnaLuca

THE LINDY PRINCIPLE, GENERALIZEDThe Lindy Principle, from Taleb's "Antifragile", uses age to infer information about life expectancy.Here, I propose an intuitive justification and I explore practical uses other than estimating

Ryan James Girdusky

RyanGirdusky

First, why the hell is Trump interviewing with Bob Woodward?Secondly, there's nothing shocking in that tape. It's totally normal to play something down so they don't create a panic. Hell,

athreya

athreya49

RBI DG is giving ammunition to opponents of flexible IT. By forgetting about the flexible part. Surprisingly, when CPI inflation fell below 2% he didn’t complain. The law and the

whippletom

whippletom

Sage has just published its estimates of the *indirect* effects of lockdown on mortality 6,000 excess deaths in March and April due to changes in emergency care 10,000 excess deaths

Madeline Peltz

peltzmadeline

THREAD:Here's just a few times Fox News has claimed the coronavirus crisis has passed: Feb 25, Fox medical contributor Dr. Janette Nesheiwat said of coronavirus, “We have it contained in

Eliza Forsythe

ElizaForsythe

For the last 6 months or more, I have been obsessed with this basic measurement problem: how many individuals who lost employment during the pandemic received UI benefits? Here is

Graham Neary

GrahamNeary

Nobody who understands what I'm about to say can think about the Covid-19 crisis again in the same way. It's all based on objective data, and simple estimates.Please retweet this

Jason L. Salemi, PhD

JasonSalemi

I know the term "EXCESS DEATHS" gets mentioned quite a bit since death is the most obvious adverse outcome associated with this pandemic.There was even an MMWR on Oct 23

Lianne Oelke

lianneoelke

The writer/ agent relationship is worth transparent discussion. Based on my own recent experience, I want to reiterate a few things. Writers deserve (at the very least and among other

BobbyPiton

BobbyPiton3

My Fellow Americans; Citizens of Georgia in Particular:The number of people that voted declined by 10.97% for Perdue in 2021 vs 2020 based on initial estimates.Meanwhile the vote count fell

Michael George

Mike_aka_Logiqx

Here's a detailed thread explaining how the weekly ONS data should be interpreted when monitoring all cause mortality and excess deaths. It seems very common for people to misinterpret the

David Broockman

dbroockman

New draft paper: "Does Affective Polarization Undermine Democratic Norms or Accountability? Maybe Not" (w/ @j_kalla & @seanjwestwood)Would love comments! Draft is here: https://osf.io/9btsq/ .For those who want a quick su

Jeremy R. Hammond

jeremyrhammond

The total number of hospitalizations in 2020 "with" (not necessarily FOR) #COVID19 is within the range of annual hospitalizations FOR #influenza estimated by the CDC. (Thread continues...)h/t Marjorie, a member

Yiqin Fu

yiqinfu

The Chinese magazine Renwu just published a long feature on “algorithms and food delivery drivers”.Apparently the delivery platforms ask drivers to follow ***walking*** rather than driving directions, so drivers have

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