#Probability

ThreadLet's discuss AGAIN the absurdity of people claiming the @realDonaldTrump must do ___________ or he won't be reelected.NONE OF THESE PEOPLE THOUGHT HE WOULD WIN IN 2016.Who KNEW he would
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A thread inspired by two charts (h/t @C_Barraud & @economistmeg ) which raise an important question: what will happen to banks if there’s a 2nd wave or 2nd lockdown? First,
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A belated Christmas quiz question for you - what do puzzles, poker, and misinformation have in common? The answer is at the bottom of this thread.1/ Easier question first. In
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Things are pretty grim at the moment. Ireland's 7d rolling average of confirmed #covid cases, per 100k of population, leads the world after we were at the other end of
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For context, around 1.2m people in Hong Kong have registered for recent mass testing drive (out of 7.5m). Of 128,000 initial samples tested, 4 of the 6 positives detected were
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I agree; there’s a theme there to be explored.We have a tendency to overcorrect, to gravitate to extremes. And to get overemotional or snarky when advocating for what we think
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Don’t have much cash but want to invest in real estate?Want to get SBA loans and special loan programs so you can buy real estate investments with only 5-10% down?One
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1/ Kid woke me up and when I signed on I saw a lot of encouragement to block @MasaSonCap. I may block him, but not because of what he said
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Options used to be close to irrelevant for bitcoin's price.Until now.At current price levels, hedging large option notionals has a major impact on price.Here's a quick thread on options
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Alright everyone, let's discuss the active weather pattern for this week. Here are the main areas of focus:Lowland SnowCold Temperatures & Wind ChillLocally Strong Winds The active weather pattern is
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Who wants an on-chain update webinar for Decred next week?Perhaps @PermabullNino can join in and we can run through some of our charts and see whats going on in the
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I'm primarily a swing trader. Been doing a lot of lower tf stuff to stay busy and some of it is really promising but my money mostly comes from positions
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#Bitcoin at resistance with clear HTF levels below. A weekly rounded retest of the 12-12.5K breakout area would be the ideal PA for me to load up on my
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I've been thinking about New Year's resolutions today.The last couple years I've been big into resolutions on New Year's Eve, but I haven't done anything so far this year because
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Good 10 min talk discussing the passive leg raise to assess FRhttps://www.isicem.org/e-chat/Video_PresChat.asp?Num=7less reliable than PPV but wider applicability start semi-recumbent (to mobilise splanchic blood)use bed to raise legs to
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FORTHCOMING PAPER ALERTTwo major findings in political science are that (1) protests are a channel for citizens to signal their preferences to representatives, and (2) representatives are less responsive to
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