#Probability

How much better is it to use the triple captain chip in a double gameweek?Using Salah as an example, this {THREAD} explores how a single and double gameweek differs for
Read more
Something that has long appealed to me about baseball is that it's ultimately a game of probability, rather than singular pre-decided outcomes.Good teams don't always win, bad teams don't always
Read more
And now the bombshells: 2020NIAID got $700 mil more for COVIDI looked at top 236 projects: 36 C19-related, 200 others1) 81% of the C19 budget is for a vaccines2) Therapeutics
Read more
A hill I'll die on:95% of entrepreneurs should forget about technology (a few big fish and a lot of sophisticated fishermen) and focus on small business (small fish everywhere and
Read more
I think the correct answer to Paxton's expert's claim is as follows. Most frequentist statistics is dedicated to answering a very specific question: What are the odds of something occurring
Read more
Thought of the day after reading feedback from today's WW video...long range outlooks are not written as "if A then B" - they are probabilistic. I think the common person
Read more
0/Many of us combating Covid authoritarianism are valiantly treating it as a science communication problem.But I’m not sure that that alone can overcome the problem.As I have written, there are
Read more
I'm not sure what I make of this, but...The closer the market's predicted margin is to a key number, the wider the distribution of actual margins are, resulting in higher
Read more
The @IUCNRedList of Threatened Species has been updated today and includes recent assessments of 422 species of sharks and rays. One species in particular has a story that could serve
Read more
1/ This is not to laugh at shitcoiners. But let this be a lesson. A lot of you guys claim to be “traders”. But see, I’M a trader. I trade
Read more
Saw this "Biden in a Landslide" map on CNN this morning, and I decided to put together a THREAD showing how good pundits, experts, scientists, and the media in general
Read more
The WE scandal is jut beginning with yet another ethics investigation of the PM for funneling contracts to it. His mother, wife and brother all involved with it. In fact
Read more
Very difficult to compare Messi & Maradona. Diego is the Argentine that Argentines are, Messi is the Argentine they aspire to be. One they relate to, they see their mistakes,
Read more
How @unimelb design experts and epidemiologists built a new type of #COVID19 modelling that was instrumental in eliminating COVID-19 in Victoria; a thread. While previous mathematical models were able to
Read more
A lot of entrepreneurs fail because they are selfish."I'm passionate about x" "I've always wanted to do y""I want to be my own boss""Its my dream to own a restaurant.""I
Read more
1/6 This talk is about a recent paper (@ASNAmNat 2020 https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/707016?journalCode=an) with microeconomist G Nöldeke (https://wwz.unibas.ch/en/prof-dr-georg-noeldeke/) and marine biologist O Puebla (
Read more
By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.