#Probability

Raoul Pal

RaoulGMI

Take your politics out of COVID 19 and instead think of cases>hospitalizations>beds>ICU>Deaths. It's essentially the exact same metrics as a sales or marketing funnel.Total traffic is the largest driver and

Luis Marquez

TheTumultus

Let's make one thing clear: posts like these are disingenuous.Yes, 1% of 328M people would be approximate to 3.28M deaths assuming survival rates are accurate. The math is right.Current COVID

Dr. Katherine Evans

CausalKathy

Broadly speaking I think all schools of thought on causal inference are the same. People love to argue weird nuances and fight about DAGs, but everyone is more or less

Andy Wittry

AndyWittry

Here's what the bus seating assignments will look like for the men's NCAA tournament, based on a planning document from January. Schools within 350 miles of Indy will travel with

JG

JonGall45

Mental Models: @m2jr “A way to think better. Frameworks for making decisions that maximize the probability of the best outcome.” Insight Models: Earned Secret Why Now? Adoption and Technology Inflection

ʜᴇɴᴋ ᴠᴀɴ ᴇss

henkvaness

The next few tweets are about why and how mainstream media kill perfect stories because they are not new (1/..) The first trick to get a perfect story killed is

Aaron Dantowitz

AaronDantowitz

Apropos of nothing: When a judge in a criminal case acquits an accused, but makes a statement in his or her reasons that certain facts were “probably” true, what is

PriyankaPulla

PriyankaPulla

Some extra points I learnt while reporting this story. Bharat Biotech has claimed that because it is a whole virus vaccine and attracts a wider range of antibody responses (to

JD Long

CMastication

I was explaining the history of catastrophe (cat) reinsurance to a new hire. Then I looked at Austin and saw similarities. A ...In 1992 hurricane Andrew bombed Florida. At the

Champion Vibe

ChampionVibe

$fsr trading thread: a lot of people I see, tend to be very emotional on the drops in price, that have repeatedly happened for multiple weeks. People are failing to

Rebecca, with 🤗 🏳️‍⚧️🤓🟥 BLM | ACAB even UK 1ₛ

GellmanRebecca

So I have a (not really) shocking revelation.@twitter @twittersafety you have failed the Turing test.I can now prove that reporting a tweet is almost, but not entirely a waste of

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

nntaleb

FRAUD!!!!!If there is a reason to shut down the WHO, here it is.Cass Sunstein is the poster child of pseudo-empiricism. He failed to get pandemics early on and missed on

Rob Ford

robfordmancs

The cost-benefit on "shutting things with a vaccine literally being rolled out" is not the same as the cost-benefit on "shutting things with no idea when a vaccine will come,

DeepValueCo

deepvalueco

There are a number of sub-groups of #uranium stocks whose value proposition appeals to specific individuals, which others may view as probably junk.Largely this depends on taste, outlook & bias.

Kishore C Iyer🇮🇳

Kishoreciyer1

Pakistan has sold most of Balochistan and its resources to China, in fact a Pakistani is a second grade citizen there. China is too smart, it knows that the Pakiland

عســـکری ریــنچ ™️

WrenchoGrapghy

Thread: Recent Study On Social Conditions & Political Divides in Pakistan.French economists have analyzed the polls data at @WIL_inequality since 1970 to 2018 Elections. It has discussed the fall &

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