#Probability

Tim O'Brien (he/him)

tobrien

80% of the people I work with in Tech understand what a "bike shed" is - when you saying, "our discussion of this web page is turning into a bike

Robert Wiblin

robertwiblin

A serious reasoning error that is particularly common among educated people is to argue that if a study hasn't been done on a particular question we have 'no data', and

Shamit Dua

FearTheBrown

Here is a mini rant. I don't know where it will stop. The Pelicans have a poor process in place. Let's start from the handling of Zion which is a

Carl T. Bergstrom

CT_Bergstrom

Racist algorithms exacerbate into the prosecutor’s fallacy: a high p(match|guilty) will still yield a very small p(guilty|match) if you dragnet.In the case, it sounds like not even p(match|guilty) was high.

Chris Carreon

Trading_Boxes

Trading is all about probability and reward-to-risk ratios under specific market conditions. While you cannot predict the future, you can get a good idea what your performance will be through

Alex John London

AlexJohnLondon

2. Right now we are struggling to get vaccine into people’s arms. If we adopt a policy of 1 shot only, we could easily be in a situation in which

Matias Kaplan

matias_kaplan

Elon Musk's testing tweet is pretty dumb but shows how testing probabilities can be tough. Musk likely was using the BD Veritor antigen test (if I'm wrong please correct me).

𝐖𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐲 𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 🐝🔑🗡

wendynather

Thinking today about one of the lessons I learned from futurist @heathervescent: you may be pretty sure something is going to happen, but you don't know WHEN. Did we know

Aditya Todmal

AdityaTodmal

A THREAD:BEST OPTIONS STRATEGY FOR CONSISTENT INCOME -OPTIONS WHEEL STRATEGYEverything to know about this strategy I'm posting in this thread. (1/12) Step 1: Stock Selection1. For this strategy you're going

Nick Huber

sweatystartup

Probably. Money could stay cheap for a long time. There is a ton of negative yielding debt abroad and liquidity ready to flood our market at the drop of a

Pegasus of Dharma

HarduttSuhas

The Paradox of Tolerance by Karl PopperA must read excerpt for all Hindus who are striving to preserve Sanatan Dharam in face of challenges posed by forces of anarchy. Karl

Paul Bleicher

pbleic

1/ Everyone’s talking about RCTs, but I am guessing that it is a bit of a vague concept for many non--medical folks. Here's a quick but longish look at a

Andy Schwen

mrschwen

For those interested in standards based grading for their classroom, I'd like to give an example of how to grade student work. I'm sharing an image of a math student

Brian Rounds

iambeeper

A lot of hot takes on the power outages the last few days—it’s become a Rorschach test that fits perfectly into your previously held beliefs on energy policy. So whose

Michael Snoyman

snoyberg

When some kind of a bad situation exists, a lot of people respond with something akin to "we have to do something." I think that's an understandable response, but ultimately

Peter Turchin

Peter_Turchin

As I am watching the election coverage, I can't help but think about it in a broader context -- that of Asimov's Psychohistory, to be precise. We are talking about

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