#Probability

mathfrak{Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt}

betanalpha

I don't like the skateboarding analogy to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo because it's too easy to misinterpret what the algorithm actually does.My brain is running on fumes, but let's use those

Brian Tang

btangyWx

The last several runs of the HWRF have had a pretty consistent signal for Sally undergoing RI beginning late Sunday into Monday. There are some signals that support this possibility.

10-K Diver

10kdiver

1/Get a cup of coffee.In this thread, I'll help you understand Geometric Expectations. 2/Imagine we have an investment opportunity.If the investment goes well, we get to double our money.But if

Pratham Prasoon

PrasoonPratham

The math for machine learning always scared me.Until... This year when I across these free resources which helped me in a massive way!Here's everything you need to know about math

Dr. Veronica Ivy

SportIsARight

Lots of people still think that by allowing trans women who transition post-puberty into women's sport, we're going to see an utter takeover of women's sport by trans women.Lots to

Bob Moran

bobscartoons

1. Many people are saying that they are not spending Christmas with family as it is “not worth the risk”. In order for a person without coronavirus symptoms to “kill

MultifractelFarol

Mephisto731

Here's a pretty full answer to this one as I got some decent questions in DMs (which are mostly open). It's not the only answer, of course, not the best

Shawna Benson

shawnabenson

Y'all my GP sent the most amazing email re: COVID vaccinations and I have to share it. Tweet thread incoming! Okay, I'm tweeting this in full, so be prepared for

Julian Sanchez

normative

Here’s a depressing dynamic I’ve seen a bunch the past two weeks:(1) Crackpot conspiracy claim X is asserted, on the basis of supposed evidence Y.(2) Y is decisively shown to

Pausa Fútbol

PausaFutbol

Real Madrid and the lack of a volume shooterReal Madrid have won the league in the 19/20 season thanks to their rock solid defence but their goal scoring and shooting

Richard McElreath 🦔

rlmcelreath

Many performers of music cannot read it. Okay. There are other, often more intuitive, ways to learn music.Scientists perform stat models. Most scientists cannot read them. This is less OK,

Simon Lee

SimonLeeWx

Because of the time-lagged ensemble approach used by the Met Office vs. the "burst" approach used by ECMWF, the January C3S update of GloSea5 only had a max. ~40% probability

brendan

brendan_49

$ANNX was founded on Ben Barres discovery that C1q prunes synapses in normal development and neurodegen. ANNX ultimate aim, I think, is Alzheimers, but more efficient paths first in Guillain-Barre

Brendan Kent

brendankent

Expected Goals (xG), Explained What does it mean when a shot is "worth" 0.2 xG? Why does it matter if a team's xG in a season is less than their

Dr David Robert Grimes

drg1985

Hi @JuliaHB1 - your claim here is highly misleading, and misunderstands #CovidTesting. I'll try explain why: firstly, the sensitivity of PCR #COVID19 test is ~98%, specificity 98.9%. Now, false positives

Jon Deeks

deeksj

Great summary and we really need to take the toxicity out of this. Agree with >95% of what is here. Thx for taking time to do this. The big challenge

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