#Probability

Alex John London

AlexJohnLondon

When you make an argument like this, please show your work. Let’s think of the cases1. So we deploy an investigational vaccine that doesn’t actually confer immunity or strong immunity.

The Profit Jesus

jesus_profit

1/ Quick thread on why options hedging is going to drive $BTC higher. Options trading has exploded in both stock and crypto markets, and it is having a significant impact

Grace 🏳️‍⚧️

Vivid_Valkyrie

Thanks to @AxeltheInferno for running the numbers we've calculated that according to Genshin Impacts Probability system you would effectively have to spend a MINIMUM of $150 US to get a

small robots

smolrobots

Nate Silver's replies are a good place to see a demonstration of Twitter users' absolute inability to read what they're replying to. Like, he's literally just outlining scenarios based on

Avi 🔮🧙‍♂️

AviPearl2

1 Easy Way To Raise Your Probability As a Trader ***THREAD*** The 1 Setup method The easiest way to become a profitable trader is focusing on 1 set up. A

MMA By The Numbers

NumbersMMA

I've been doing some research into fighters that have missed weight, dating back to the start of early weigh-ins (UFC 199), this is a thread of my findings, and my

Cornelius Senf

corneliussenf

New paper out in @NatureComms! Using satellite-based disturbance maps and climate reanalysis data we show that excess forest mortality is consistently linked to drought in Europe. But what exactly is

Corporate Machiavelli (Attending To Final Matters)

corporatemach

THREAD:What To Look For In A WifeNote: This thread was inspired by LifeMathMoney@LifeMathMoney In America from 1970 - 2020, the divorce rate has been 50%.If you get married you are

IceCap

IceCapGlobal

1/ current risk-on trade may be reaching a point of exhaustion. 2/ trigger events can come from out of the blue, and at first may appear immaterial or insignificant to

Simon Young

MrYoungMaths

Have you ever wondered what a weather forecast means when it says “There is an 80% chance of rain”? I understand that it means that rain is pretty likely, but

⚡rin ⚡

cinnamorollnya

Explaining how Pucci IS black with simple biology and science because y'all haven't been listening in lessons ; a thread Number one thing that's pointed out is that Pucci

Simon DeDeo

SimonDeDeo

Attaching probabilities to beliefs may be a useful tool in Bayesian statistics, but is it meaningful? Consider 538: as their models push above 90% for Biden, they are reaching new

dream

dreamwastaken

Numbers don't lie, but they can be extremely misleading. I've been talking with a statistician with a PHD that specializes in probability that has shined a lot of light on

Jig's Patel

jigspatel1988

Thread on Short straddle with adjustments:Short straddle is non-directional strategySelling same strike price CALL/PUT option same underlying with same expiry.Nifty Spot at 14353, So you can sell 14350 CE as

Eli Tyre

EpistemicHope

Culturally, I am clearly part of the "Yudkowsky cluster". And as near as I can tell, Bayes is actually the true foundation of epistemology.But my personal PRACTICE is much closer

Justin Carstens

jncar76

.@gelliottmorris and @NateSilver538 have posted conditional probability tables of their models vs. the national popular vote margin. Very useful! But, these tables do not account for national polling average uncertainty.Accounting

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