#Probability

Bob's Your Uncle FI

BobsYourUncleFI

Hypothetical Match Day Extra Dividends (MDEDs) Data Analysis: 1) Probability of Winning MDEDs between 01/08/2019 and 17/01/2021.2) How the introduction of MDEDs would have Changed the Probabilty of Winning a

Matteo Lisi

mlisi6

New paper out! We developed a new method to study confidence in perceptual decision-making without requiring explicit rating scales, and found clear deviations from Bayesian accounts of subjective confidence.https://www.nature.com/articles/

10-K Diver

10kdiver

1/Get a cup of coffee.In this thread, I'll walk you through the importance of understanding *correlations* between bets.For example, a portfolio of *correlated* stocks can have very different performance characteristics

Anders Hove

derznovich

You may have heard that China has a lot of wind and solar curtailment, and though it has improved, the system is less flexible than it needs to be. My

Yardley Yeadon

MichaelYeadon3

No evidence Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine affects women’s fertility - Full Fact“This claim has no basis. The spike protein on the Covid-19 virus and a protein that makes up the placenta

James Wason

JMSWason

New paper by myself and David Robertson. This follows on from some previous work I've done on multiple testing in multi-arm trials.https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/pst.2059#.XzVVhqC_0jQ.twitter Generally there are two ma

Christopher D. Long (Кристофер Октонион Лонг)

octonion

Here's an interesting side excursion on the Elo rating system.Say our players have ratings A, B and the probability of A beating B follows Beta(A,B). Then we observe A beating

Cosmonaut

CosmonautC

//ThreadAs a trader one of the biggest problems you will face are black swan events.Black swan events are events that aren't predictable but seem obvious after-the-factToday was a perfect example

10-K Diver

10kdiver

1/Get a cup of coffee.In this thread, I'll help you understand the basics of Binomial Thinking.The future is always uncertain. There are many different ways it can unfold -- some

UtdArena

utdarena

THREAD:Re-Introducing Possession Value Pass Maps. OK. Firstly, what is Possession Value (PV)? It's either called Expected Possession Value (EPV) or Possession Value but it's essentially a model that looks at

Shrey Srivastava

BlogShrey

While looking at speculative pharmaceutical stocks I am reminded of why I am averse to these risky picks.#DDDD was compelling enough, though, to break this rule. The 10+ treatments under

John Harrison

Jhdharrison1

THREAD:1v1s are incredibly important situations for GKs to master as they correspond to 35% of all goals scored in the 19/20 #PremierLeague! In this thread I will show how effective

Robert McNees

mcnees

Physicist Max Born was...born... #OTD in 1882. In 1926 he formulated a rule for the statistical likelihood of a measurement on a quantum system yielding a particular outcome. Born’s rule

NWS Seattle

NWSSeattle

Friday Afternoon Forecast Update Round 2 is approaching the coast now and will spread heavy snow inland this evening through Saturday! Cold temperatures and breezy winds will continue. Another system

𝕋𝕠𝕞𝕞𝕪

tommy_lufc

If Kalvin is out on Sunday, who would you prefer to see starting in his position? #lufc Some options, with radically different degrees of probability. #lufc

Ür fävë Accounťäñt☆👔💘

iyobosakelly_

Here are some truths: 1) A person’s profile/tweets may not be an accurate reflection of who they are, for many, it's usually a reflection of who they wish to portray

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