#Probability

techbronyc

techbronyc

People greatly misunderstand luck, and how it’s really a derivative of probability.Millionaires get lucky to an extent, but not how you think. Many create a product or provide a service.

Tucker Boynton

Tucker_TnL

I’ve seen it floating around that the Bucs are somehow at a disadvantage tomorrow because they’ve beaten the Saints twice already and it’s hard to go 3-0.A short clarification thread...

The Election Wizard

Wizard_Predicts

Do extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence? No.If the slogan were true, we could never have sufficient evidence for a whole host of extraordinarily improbable events. Although the slogan is catchy,

Tracy King

tkingdot

“An unusual sequence of numbers” genuinely laughed out loud at the stupidity of that opening linehttps://twitter.com/scottkeir/status/1334462278880661504 I do love the idea that to rig a lottery, you’d choose a sequence

Trump 2020

Revolut08335670

1/5It was a coup dèta. The chance that all swing states stop counting at the same time, independently, is nearly 0. Suppose that vote counting could have stopped 4 times

Rohit J. Gyanchandani

RJGyanchandani

Disregarding probability in decision making is a cognitive bias: Neglect of probabilityA Thread 1/ One way people violate simple rules of decision making is by neglecting the probability of

Natasha Knox

_natashaknox_

1) DH bought a new laptop yesterday. The extend warranty was literally the same as my ANNUAL life insurance premium. Which loss would be a bit of a downer, and

Kat Woods

Kat__Woods

Once upon a time there was a boy who cried "there's a 𝟱% 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲'𝘀 𝗮 𝘄𝗼𝗹𝗳!"The villagers came running, saw no wolf, and said "He 𝘴𝘢𝘪𝘥 there was a

Hector Drummond, Stay Home. Die Slowly Inside.

hector_drummond

Part of what underlines the different reactions to the accusations of voter fraud is different views on the prior probability of such fraud. So we can ask, was the prior

Josh Crowley {FILE MISSING: Blue_Checkmark.png}

jdcrowley

Do you ever feel like there's something fundamentally wrong with the universe?The other day I had a horrifying realization, a mathematical reason why everything seems so shitty all the time,

Dr Suresh Muthukumaraswamy

DrSureshMuthu

0. Obviously it is not ideal that border/MIQ workers were not being tested. But is this failure to blame for the current outbreak? Some thoughts on the "border worker hypothesis...(might

Mike Beuoy

inpredict

A thread on NBA home court advantage, using play by play data going back to 1996.Home court advantage by minute, as measured by difference in points per possession (ppp).1/ Aggregated

Nate Cohn

Nate_Cohn

Random thought: a lopsided Democratic edge in early voting may be a bit of an underrated challenge for pollsters. It's a bit dangerous to have one party lock in its

British Election Study

BESResearch

The 2019 BES Post-Election Random Probability Survey is now LIVE!To download your copy of the data, click the link below:https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/2019-british-election-study-post-election-random-probability-survey/ U

Stonk Option Trump - Chairman of $AMC

StonkTrump

Been having a lot of people asking me lately about if now is a good time to get into $amc ...so I thought I would write a quick thread to

Samip Lamsal

lamsalsamip1

Why the Europa League is a bigger and better competition than Champions League: A Thread 1) More teams participate in the Europa League so it is a bigger competition. 2)

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